At Baghdad's gates, speed and caution

By Thursday evening, US Army and Marine Corps units had pushed to the outskirts of Baghdad, preventing the destruction of bridges, securing highways, and in some cases fighting door-to-door in outlying cities. Special Operations forces raided the Thar Thar presidential palace about 56 miles northwest of Baghdad. They found no trace of Saddam Hussein or his sons, but seized important documents,

As US troops close with Iraqi forces in Baghdad, the danger of chemical weapons could decrease because of wind patterns and the difficulty of delivering them without harming Iraq's own soldiers.

Yet the possibility of biological weapons remains. Such weapons are harder to detect and easier to spread, and in the confusion of battle it's hard to know whether they're in fact weapons or some form of contagious disease.

"We could find ourselves bogged down, wading through and responding to a massive civilian sickness problem, fairly certain that it wasn't natural, but unable to conclusively pin it on Saddam," says former Pentagon strategist Larry Seaquist. "The Iraqis have quite a few choices of no-fingerprint diseases they might employ."

Still, much of this remains speculative. For one thing, the US-led coalition does not know who's running things in Baghdad.

"We can't tell who's in charge," says General Brooks. "I don't think the Iraqi people can tell who's in charge either, and we have indications that the Iraqi forces don't know who's in charge."

At times, it may be hard to remember that the war has been going on for barely more than two weeks. What was supposed to take 47 days according to the US war plan - reaching a point 50 miles south of Baghdad - took less than five days. No "scorched earth" policy - blazing oil wells, flooding caused by blown-up dams - has happened, as some had feared. Coalition casualties have been relatively light, given the overall force and amount of fighting. Civilian casualties have not been as bad as some had predicted.

But for all the speed of US forces northward, the resistance in southern cities has been greater than anticipated. And scenes of happy Iraqis showering coalition soldiers with garlands have been limited.

The coming humanitarian need - feeding, sheltering, and providing medical aid to hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of Iraqis is likely to be enormous. Helping build a democratic nation could take years, and could be undercut by possible attempts at an Islamist takeover as well as by questions about the size and independence of the Kurdish north.

For now, the goal is Baghdad. It could capitulate quietly.

Or it could prove to be the "Mother of All Urban Battles," as some warn.

"As the coalition gets closer to the city, the more urban the terrain becomes," says Colonel Smith. "And then you're back to the age-old question: How much of the city do you have to destroy to save it?"

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