A war with echoes of past campaigns

That has been a clear lesson for many commanders in the field in Iraq today - apparently welcomed by the public as it remains riveted to the all-news, all-the-time live TV coverage.

Meanwhile, public perceptions and emotions are following a predictable pattern as well.

"It begins with apprehension on the eve of fighting, followed by elation when hostilities begin because the waiting is finally over, and then there is a letdown that gradually hardens into grim determination," says military analyst Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute in Alexandria, Va.

"Public opinion is presently in transit between stages three and four, in other words, from letdown to determination," says Dr. Thompson. "The public now knows it won't be easy, but that hasn't eroded support."

How will it turn out? There aren't many experts (civilian or military) who foresee anything but military victory for the US-led coalition.

Kenneth Pollack, a former Persian Gulf military analyst for the CIA, predicts that the war will last between four and 10 weeks. Coalition forces may "have lost some momentum," he said the other day, but military victory by the US and its allies is inevitable.

And for all the critical talk of "pause" in the war (strongly denied by the Pentagon) much is going on to indicate coalition progress on the ground in Iraq.

Artillery exchanges with Republican Guard units just outside Baghdad are aimed to "fix" enemy forces in place, making them vulnerable to airstrikes.

Thanks to intelligence information provided by Iraqis in southern cities, Baath Party headquarters are being destroyed and senior officials killed or captured. Clean water is now flowing through a pipeline from Kuwait to thirsty Iraqis in Umm Qasr.

US Special Forces have secured key sites in western Iraq, and some captured airfields (and even stretches of highway) are being used by coalition aircraft. Oil-well fires have been limited to a handful but even those are now being extinguished, with the result that any threat of "scorched earth" tactics by Hussein seems to have dissipated. In all, US and British forces now control some 40 percent of the country.

While there are some similarities with previous wars, there are clear divergences as well.

"What is significantly different for the US in this war is the need to simultaneously fight conventional and guerrilla wars while providing food, water, healthcare, and in some cases even shelter to ordinary Iraqis," says retired Army Col. Dan Smith.

"The latter are functions the US has not performed until after hostilities ended."

And the lessons-learned, of course, will come much later. President Bush, Secretary Rumsfeld, Joint Chiefs Chairman Richard Meyers, combat commander Tommy Franks all say military and regime changes in Iraq "are not in doubt."

Other close observers are not so sure, and they see connections with other conflicts as well.

"When it is over, if it is over, this war will have horrible consequences," says Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak. "Instead of having one [Osama] bin Laden, we will have 100 Bin Ladens."

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