The next battle: transforming Iraqi tyranny to democracy

"The truth is, we don't have a very good idea [how the Iraqis will react]," says Patrick Clawson, deputy director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "Iraqis are sick and tired of 20 years of war, they want it over with. They would be prepared to tolerate [American leadership]."

The US, he says, must quickly address humanitarian needs and leave as "quickly as we can" to instill positive sentiment among Iraqis.

A paradoxical danger of removing Hussein is that it could upset the country's tenuous ethnic composition. Iraq's arbitrary borders are partly to blame for the country's fractured nature and strong-man history. After WWI, Great Britain ruled Iraq imposing borders that brought three rival groups together: Shiite Muslims, Sunni Muslims, and the ethnic Kurds.

Ethnic Kurds, who live in an area spanning northern Iraq, Turkey, and Iran, demonstrated their desire for autonomy after the first Gulf War. The US had pledged support for their uprising. When it never materialized, Hussein squashed the Kurd rebellion. Kurdish aims for independence " and the consternation that causes Iran and Turkey " may mean the US must focus on border stability before democracy.

Still, many Iraqis themselves want democracy. "All Iraqis are looking for and dreaming of achieving democracy," says Shammari.

Wake Forest religion professor Professor Kimball says that Islam and democracy can co-exist. Many Muslim countries are not democratic, he says, because they are relatively new post-colonial states, not because Islam forbids democratic governance.

Bush goes a step further. In a major address recently, Bush proclaimed that all human cultures aspire to democratic ideals, essentially laying the cornerstone for his "domino democracy" theory. "Success in Iraq," Bush said, "could also begin a new stage for Middle Eastern peace and set in motion progress towards a truly democratic Palestinian state."

Ironically, the State Department published a classified report " "Iraq, the Middle East and Change: No Dominoes." " the same day Bush set forth that vision.

The department analysis claims that daunting economic and social problems are likely to undermine basic stability in the region for years. And it suggests that strong anti-American sentiment could transform any elections that take place into a strong mandate for an Islamic government hostile to US interests.

US efforts to establish democracy could backfire, warns Filleux, if the rebuilding process in Iraq is miscast.

"The United States will fail if it is seen trying to implant new values," he says. "The fundamentalists in the Islamic world are already accusing the US of doing just that."

Another former Iraqi general, Najeeb al-Salhi, however, says the current opportunity should not be missed.

"I think US has the opportunity to change the region to peaceful one," he says. "This is a golden opportunity for US to promote peace, democracy, and regain the trust of Iraqis. Promoting Democracy in Iraq is a right step."

Shammari remains guarded. Democracy, he concedes, will take time to develop.

"Our people are different than the people in the US," he says. "Because in the US, they grew up with democracy. We don't have that."

And he stresses the importance of genuine leadership. "Democracy starts from the leadership and we have to be very careful when we elect [leaders] or choose them."

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