Daily Update: War Edition

Northern front: US troops push south with Kurdish militia
Jordan: Iraqi diplomats kicked out, discontent grows

US, Kurds team up, move toward Kirkuk
Long anticipated, the "northern front" has been opened Sunday with the arrival of "a couple of hundred troops," mostly US Special Forces, an unidentified senior Kurdish official told The Christian Science Monitor. The Sydney Morning Herald cites another source as saying that the planes flew into a small airstrip outside Sulaymaniya under cover of darkness carrying 280 lightly armed troops. The delay of this arrival of US ground forces is largely attributed to the failure of the US to negotiate an agreement with Turkey to use its bases for a staging ground for an incursion into the north of Iraq. But, as far as the Kurdish official is concerned, the arrival is "better late than never."

The US is likely to sustain a more intensified air campaign against the northern cities of Kirkuk and Mosul than it has so far waged, says the Monitor. This is thought to be necessary to pave the way for ground troops that are smaller in number than once planned. But, in some areas, the ground forces have already begun to fight. The BBC reports from northern Iraq that there is heavy fighting in the village of Pier Daud, south of the city of Irbil. Their correspondent says Kurdish pesh merga forces, supported by American units, are using artillery and heavy machine-guns to attack Iraqi troops. He says it appears that the Kurdish forces are trying to push south toward the oil-rich city of Kirkuk. The BBC also reports that some correspondents are saying "elements of the northern coalition advance are encountering little resistance, with many local people waving and giving thumbs-up signals" to advancing US troops.

'Between Iraq and a hard place'
Few countries find themselves in the unenviable geopolitical position that Jordan does. With Israel and the Palestinians to its West and Iraq to its East, Jordan is located, as King Abdullah recently said, " between Iraq and a hard place." Abdullah called for efforts to halt the war as soon as possible, as the Jordan Times reports. This may help his standing among Jordanians, who are overwhelmingly against the war. But, his symbolic decision to expel five Iraqi diplomats almost certainly will not. As the Washington Post reports, this is the first such move by an Arab country following the recent US request. Saying that the diplomats had violated a bilateral security agreement, Jordan's prime minister backed away from any implication that the decision came with prodding from the US. He said, "We should not give the expulsions a bigger dimension. It is strictly a Jordanian-Iraqi issue." Western diplomats say Jordan has lent logistical aid to US military special forces operating in western Iraq.

Recent street protests against the war in Iraq have caused King Abdullah to call for calm. As Al Bawaba reports, a recent poll reveals that the Jordanian society has adopted a hard-line stance toward the US "in view of the biased American policy towards the region, particularly its unlimited support for Israel and the mounting threat to use force against Iraq." Among the more telling statistics coming out of this study, conducted by the West Asia Center for Media and Strategic Studies, was that 27 percent of those polled supported the assassination of the US diplomat, Laurence Foley, in Amman last year.

Previous update: 11:10 a.m. ET/8:10 a.m. PT March 23, 2003.

US POWs?: Iraq says it shot down a plane and has US prisoners
Holding out: Iraqi resistance stiffens as coalition forces approach Baghdad
Friendly fire: British plane shot down by US Patriot missile

Iraqis celebrate reported capture of US prisoners
The US has now confirmed that a coalition aircraft has gone missing after Iraq claimed to have downed a plane and captured US pilots. Meanwhile, Reuters says that Iraqi television showed at least four bodies and five prisoners said to be US soldiers on Sunday. Al Bawaba reports that the tape showed at least 10 US POWs, including one female soldier, and a room with some 15 bodies of US troops." According to BBC, the film that aired on Iraqi TV is said to have been shot in or near the city of Nasiriya, where US troops have reported at least six dead and 14 wounded. US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has condemned the broadcast as a breach of the Geneva Convention on prisoners-of-war.

According to MSNBC, footage on Al Jazeera and Abu Dhabi TV showed Iraqi civilians celebrating what they think is the capture of the pilot along the side of the Tigris River. Sky News, however, says that Al Jazeera now reports the Iraq has not captured allied airmen. A Sky News reporter in Baghdad, said he had been told that one of the pilots had been caught. "A reliable witness said he saw the pilot ditching in the river," he said.

The US earlier denied the Iraqi reports that they had captured US soldiers. US Air Force Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said, "We have nothing to substantiate that claim by the Iraqis that any pilot has bailed out of his airplane over Baghdad." However, US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said later that he had received reports of coalition airplanes missing and he believed troops were also missing. Security officers and civilian witnesses were searching along the banks of the Tigris River for one or two pilots theat witnesses said they saw parachute down into the river. But, according to Fox News, " Rumsfeld suggested that the search in Baghdad was staged."

'Wave of steel' breaking early?
The initial march of coalition troops through the Iraqi desert, described Friday as a " wave of steel," may have met up with stiffer resistance than anticipated. After fighting in several southern Iraqi cities, BBC reports that "large numbers of US troops are moving toward the capital in a three-mile-long column from Basra." Reuters quotes a British defense source as saying, "We're looking toward Monday night, Tuesday for the ground offensive on Baghdad." According to Reuters, he "expressed determination that troops would not get bogged down on the way." According to MSNBC, the approach on Baghdad was shaping up to be " a two-pronged 'pincer' assault ... following the valleys of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers."

However, coalition forces have been stalled by Iraqi troops near the holy Shiite city of Najaf, just 100 miles south of Baghdad. According to a Reuters correspondent with units of the US 3rd Infantry Division 12 miles south of Najaf, they are facing a tougher fight than they expected. "The impression I get from talking to several officers is that they are surprised at the level of resistance and that more Iraqis haven't surrendered," he said.

Meanwhile, it seems that coalition forces also have been facing more resistance in the southern cities of Nasiriya, and Umm Qasr than previously reported. Coalition forces have only just completely secured the key southern port of Umm Qasr, a day after US officials reported they had won control of the port. As BBC reports, a US Marine Harrier jet bombed the building where Iraqis were holding out, thus ending the firefight that had raged for more than 36 hours. Though coalition forces claim to have captured Nasiriya, ABC News says that up to 500 Iraqi troops are reported to have stalled the coalition advance on the outskirts of the central Iraqi city using tanks and artillery.

'Friendly fire': A fact of war?
In Britain's third air tragedy of the war, US and British officials both said that it was likely " friendly fire" - in the form of a US Patriot missile - that downed a British plane near the Kuwaiti border on Sunday. Though the British Defense Ministry would not immediately say what type of plane was lost, the nature of the mission, or how many crew were on board, a US military official told Reuters, "apparently a Patriot shot down a British Tornado." A Tornado is a gound attack aircraft with a crew of two.

Though the reports may seem shocking, MSNBC says that the British military may not be too surprised. "Sad as it may seem, such fratricide is highly common in modern warfare, and the British pilots, tank crews, and soldiers rubbing up against the mammoth American military machine know that better than anyone." US fire killed more British troops in the first Gulf War ��� a total of nine ��� than the Iraqis did, and nearly one-fourth of all the US troops who died in that war, according to MSNBC.

In what may be another tragic and shocking instance of fratricide, one soldier was killed and at least 12 others were wounded early Saturday morning at Camp New Jersey in Kuwait. This grenade attack on the 101st Airborne Division, however, may best be described as 'unfriendly fire.' The primary suspect for the attack is a fellow US soldier. According to The New York Times, a spokesman for the division did not identify the detained soldier or suggest a motive, but "military sources described him as a sergeant attached to an engineering unit, an American citizen, and a Muslim convert. He was found in a scud bunker when senior officers took a head count after the attack." MSNBC quotes Max Blumenfeld, a US Army spokesman as saying that the the motive in the attack "most likely was resentment."

Previous update: 3:25 p.m. ET/12:25 p.m. PT March 22, 2003.

Protests: Arab world seethes with anger

Banging on the 'gates of hell'
Last September, the Secretary-General of the Arab League, Amr Moussa, gave the US an ominous warning. He said a war in Iraq would "open the gates of hell." Deciding he liked the ring to his oft-quoted phrase, he said this to the Egyptian weekly Al-Ahram last week: "When I was saying, this war was going to open the gates of hell, I meant it."

Judging by the ferocity of some of the antiwar protests around the world in just the first three days of war, Mr. Moussa may not be far off the mark. His own country of Egypt has seen some of the loudest and most violent protests to date. Thousands of protesters in Cairo condemned the "cowardice" of Arab leaders while bombarding police with rocks and threatening to burn down the US embassy. Police had to quell the angry mob with water cannons and batons. Less-violent protests continued there for a third day Saturday.

Police also had to use violence in Yemen. After tear gas did not break up a crowd in front of the US embassy, officers reportedly shot and killed four protesters. Even in the more conservative Gulf states of Oman and Bahrain, hundreds of protesters chanted antiwar slogans and scuffled with the police. Demonstrations have also been taking place in Jordan, Lebanon, and the Mauritanian capital Nouakchott.

BBC reports that the increasing availability of information via the Internet and satellite TV - what it calls the "Al Jazeera effect" - is thought to have led to more protests. The protests are expected to increase in size, number, and energy if there are televised image of civilian casualties.

Though many in the Arab world may express hatred of the US, and the West in general, the Nobel Prize-winning Egyptian author Naguib Mafouz advocates a more moderate, take-the-good-with-the-bad view of Arab relations with the West, in an interview with Al-Ahram last week. Describing "the American-British orientation [as] embodying Western arrogance," he says:

I do not subscribe to the theory that holds that Western civilization is diametrically opposed to our own, or that we must isolate ourselves in order to confront a new cultural colonialism. Culture is outside the scope of such power struggles, and the fact that we have been invaded by Eastern and Western cultures throughout history has merely enriched our makeup, giving rise to periods of renaissance. As we hold on to all we love about our civilization, we must at the same time remain open to the positive influences of other cultures, including the West.

Northern Iraq: US attacks Al Qaeda-linked group

US takes opportunity to strike Islamist group near Iran border
Kurdish commanders working with US Special Forces in northern Iraq said that the US unleashed 40 to 50 Tomahawk cruise missiles on positions held by the Ansar al-Islam radical militia force, according to the Washington Post. The commanders estimate that 100 Ansar fighters were killed in the raid. Mustafa Saeed Qadir, a senior leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, said that more air raids were expected later Saturday night before the Kurds move in on Ansar positions. US Secretary of State Colin Powell has said that they harbored the Al Qaeda operative who organized the killing of a US diplomat in Jordan last October. The Post reports that Iran is "widely understood to support Ansar with weapons and access to its border." Human Rights Watch says that "PUK officials have repeatedly accused Ansar al-Islam of having links with Osama bin Laden's Al Qaeda network, and that its members included Arabs of various nationalities who had received military training in Afghanistan. The PUK also said some fifty-seven 'Arab Afghan' fighters had entered Iraqi Kurdistan via Iran in mid-September 2001."

Meanwhile, at least one journalist was killed and nine injured when a car bomb exploded at a checkpoint near the northern Iraqi city of Halabja. A PUK security official said, "We consider it a terrorist operation by Ansar." This is the same city where Saddam Hussein launched the infamous chemical massacre of Kurds 15 years ago.

Previous update: 8:30 a.m. ET/5:30 a.m. PT March 22, 2003.

Northern Iraq: Turkey moves troops into area?

Turkey now denies moving troops into northern Iraq
"Turkey has not entered northern Iraq," said a spokesman for the Turkish General Staff, speaking Saturday on condition of anonymity. "Such news is a lie." This urgent announcement comes after news of a Turkish incursion in Iraq was widely circulated by several news agencies around the world. According to the Associated Press, "another [Turkish] military official ... had said on Friday that soldiers, in armored personnel carriers, rolled into northeastern Iraq from near the town of Cukurca, where the borders of Turkey, Iraq, and Iran converge. He said the soldiers were reinforcing several thousand Turkish troops already on the Iraqi side of the border and were not ordered to go deeper into Iraq."

Other reports had said that Turkey moved 1,500 commandos into northern Iraq, despite repeated requests from the US not to do it.

US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld warned on Friday it would be "unhelpful" if large numbers of Turkish troops moved into northern Iraq. "We have special forces and units connected to Kurdish forces in the north and you can be certain we have advised the Turkish government and Turkish forces it would be unhelpful if they went into the north in large numbers," he said at a Pentagon news conference. He conceded that might be one of the "many issues" that stalled Turkey's decision to permit US overflights.

But Friday Turkish PM Recep Erdogan reversed his course, and told the US it could use Turkish airspace to attack Iraq. Mr. Erdogan also did not attach any conditions to the overflight rights, according to a senior US official. British Defense Minister Geoff Hoon later went to great lengths, however, to explain that Turkey's reported decision to go into northern Iraq was not part of an "deal" between the allies and Turkey over airspace rights.

updated 3:10 p.m. ET/12:15 p.m. PT March 21, 2003.

War tactics: Constrained attacks shift to 'Shock and awe'
Chirac: France will block US plans in post-war Iraq

'A-day'
The world may have been shocked with the timing of the opportunistic strike at Saddam Hussein and top aides Thursday morning, but for over 36 hours of US-led military action against Iraq no one was awed. That changed at 9 p.m. in Baghdad (1 p.m. EST) when the coalition forces unleashed " A-day." The massive and overwhelming display of force long promised by the US military was fully under way. Pentagon officials said they were focusing on command and control centers and known leadership compounds. Heavy bombing also rattled the northern cities of Mosul and Kirkuk. CNN reports that US officials say one of the weapons to be used was a new, 2000-pound bomb designed to limit collateral damage. This weapon is considered optimal for use in an urban environment.

At a Pentagon briefing following this assault, US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said that "the regime is starting to lose control of their country." He also said "the confusion of Iraqi officials is growing. Their ability to see what is happening on the battlefield ... is slipping away."

Before the bombs began to drop on Friday night in Iraq, the Washington Post reported that the war had not been according to the teachings of "Colin Powell and his peers."

Since the American policy of gradual "escalation" of military force ended in failure in Vietnam, a generation of officers has been shaped by the notion that when the nation goes to war, it must use its overwhelming power to decisively defeat enemies. But the opening phase of the latest Persian Gulf war has been marked instead by a few sharp, narrowly focused blows aimed at bringing down the government of Saddam Hussein without having to resort to a conventional, all-out attack.

So why didn't the war opened with the massive conventional assault thought to be required to 'shock and awe' the enemy into immediate submission? The idea was to probe the possibility of mass surrender using constrained force, giving Hussein's army one last chance to lay down their arms. The Post quotes an "insider" as saying, "What they're trying to do right now is to punish the regime and give forces a chance to capitulate." This made sense given Rumsfeld's comment at a Pentagon briefing Thursday: "We continue to feel that there's no need for a broader conflict if the Iraqi leaders act to save themselves." He continued to say, "what will follow will not be a repeat of any other conflict. It will be of a force and scope and scale that has been beyond what has been seen before."

Time.com says that a campaign of ' Psyche and Awe' is being waged on Iraq. The objectives of the war may be severely damaged if the loss of civilians is too great, suggests Time.

The goal of stabilizing Iraq, in light of the deep political divisions the war has ignited between the US and traditional allies and the unprecedented hostility it has provoked even among relatively moderate quarters in the Arab world, necessitate that the US achieve its goal very quickly, and with minimal civilian loss of life.

Now that the "psyche and Awe" effort has turned into the anticipated "shock and awe" campaign, it is unclear whether the above goal will be compromised.

Post-Hussein Iraq: UN battles are not over
After two days of military action in Iraq overshadowed a bitter diplomatic spat that strained the relationship of traditional allies US and France, French President Jacques Chirac reminded the US and Britain Friday that the issue is not over. At a European Union summit in Brussels, Mr. Chirac said France would reject any moves that "would legitimize the military intervention and would give the belligerents the powers to administer Iraq." Chirac was speaking after British Prime Minister Tony Blair urged his 14 colleagues at the EU to back a UN resolution preparing a "civil authority in Iraq." BBC reports that at the summit, France, Germany, and Belgium criticized the US-led war, but Britain and five other nations - Spain, Italy, Portugal, Denmark, and the Netherlands - supported it.

Who will run a post-war Iraq is on the minds of many in the world, but perhaps no one will be more immediately affected than Iraq's neighbors. Clearly, many in Jordan are worried about a Turkish land grab in the aftermath of the war in Iraq. An editorial in The Jordan Times said:

If the US does not manage to obtain guarantees that Turkey will not take advantage of the US attack to continue its deployment in northern Iraq and eventually occupy the northern part of the country, many generations to come will be condemned to more crises and conflict. Some are suggesting that, in order to avoid the scenario of a Turkish occupation of Kirkuk, US troops should get there first. We have always rejected the idea that a US invasion, anywhere and under any circumstances, would be the best solution. Hence, many Jordanians would like to see the European Union keep a closer watch on Turkey and on how Ankara might or might not move into northern Iraq. The geopolitical stability of this area is, after all, much more and immediately crucial to the EU than to the US.

The big question: Is Hussein still alive?

Is Saddam Hussein alive?
The big question still lingers. Ever since the US started the war with Iraq with a quick attack on a site believed to be the hiding place of Saddam Hussein, there has been much speculation about whether Iraqi president Saddam Hussein is still alive. The Washington Post reports that US intelligence officials believe that Saddam Hussein and one or both of his sons were in the bunker in southern Baghdad early Thursday when it was struck by a barrage of US bombs and cruise missiles.

"The preponderance of the evidence is he was there when the building blew up," said one senior US official with access to sensitive intelligence. The official added that Hussein's sons, Qusay and Uday, may also have been at the compound. "He didn't get out" beforehand, another senior official said of the Iraqi president.

CBS notes that for several hours there was an ongoing debate within the Bush administration over whether this was actually the man himself or "just a darn good impostor." Iraqi defectors have long insisted that Hussein uses doubles to throw off his enemies and maintain an air of secrecy. But The Age of Melbourne says that the US now believes that the person in the video was Saddam Hussein but that they cannot say for certain when the tape was made.

MSNBC reports that while the Iraqi president mentioned the date ��� March 20 ��� in his speech as he read from a notepad, US officials said the message does not conclusively prove Saddam, who often uses is alive. US intelligence agencies are conducting a voice analysis to confirm his identity, the officials said. Aside from voice analysis, which will involve an automated speaker recognition system to compare mainly the amplitude and frequency of the voice on the recording of the speech to that of Hussein, the CIA will use facial-recognition software to analyze the nose slope, brow height, and other features of the image, according to Slate. These methods are far from foolproof, but the CIA should have a "rough guess" prepared soon, says Slate. The Associated Press reports that US officials are now saying that "it was almost certainly Saddam Hussein, not a look-alike," who appeared in the video. AP says that it is unclear, however, whether the video was pre-recorded.

AP Photos of Saddam Hussein from Jan. 17, (left), March 17, and during his televised speech on March 20, 2003.

But even if the Thursday morning strike in Baghdad missed Hussein, CNN reports that officials believe that the strikes may have killed several members of the senior leadership. The International Herald Tribune quotes an adminstration officials who says, "It may take days to sift through it all."

Meanwhile MSNBC is reporting that "serious cracks" have appeared in the Iraqi leadership and that secret talks are under way with some senior Iraqi military leaders, including some leaders of the Republican Guard, about a possible surrender.

Also...
• The war room: CIA's ultimate spy in Baghdad ( Newsweek)
• Iraq accuses Israel of taking part in war ( Ha'aretz)
• Telling Your Kids About War ( MSN)
• War News Filtered Through Nations' Politics ( Washington Post)
• 'Allies will inject you with poison', Iraqis told ( The Sydney Morning Herald)
• US exaggerates relative size of Iraq alliance ( Reuters)

• Feedback appreciated. E-mail Matthew Clark.