Assassination stuns Serbia

The status of Kosovo - formally still part of Serbia but under international protectorate - has not yet been resolved, and repeated presidential elections have failed to choose a Serbian president for lack of sufficient turnout.

Serbia still lives under the Milosevic-era constitution, since political parties have failed to agree on a new one.

Economic reforms, which are essential to ensure continued Western aid and to revive a crumbling infrastructure, have bogged down in recent months, hampered by vicious infighting among the leaders of the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS), which spearheaded the movement to bring down Milosevic.

Djindjic had struggled to maintain a parliamentary majority, and new elections seem likely soon in a bid to form a stable government.

Judging by the results of recent presidential elections, such a parliamentary poll could return anti-Djindjic nationalist forces to power.

"That would mean Milosevic's ghost coming back to haunt Serbia, because it was never properly exorcised for fear of a backlash" said James Lyon, head of the Belgrade office of the International Crisis Group, a foreign policy think tank.

If criminal gangs linked to the former regime are found to be responsible for the prime minister's death, however, voters could react against them, suggested Predrag Simic, a top adviser to former president Kostunica who now runs Serbia's Diplomatic Academy.

"This event will have a shock impact," he argued. "People might vote against the nationalists out of compassion, frustration and anger."

Djindjic was the victim of an apparent assassination attempt last month, when a truck suddenly swerved into the path of his motorcade on the road to Belgrade airport. The truck driver was released for lack of evidence, despite the revelation that he was tied to a powerful Serbian criminal organization.

"If somebody thinks that the law and reforms can be stopped by eliminating me, that is a huge delusion," Djindjic told the daily Politika at the time.

The effort toward political and economic reform, however, may be stymied by Djindjic's death.

"The real power structures in Serbia are not elected, but are the parallel structures that Milosevic created based on the security and intelligence services", said Mr. Lyon.

Those organizations, which funded themselves and the Yugoslav state by smuggling drugs, tobacco, alcohol and women, have never been dismantled, Serbs complain, and wield enormous influence behind the scenes.

"A lot of former paramilitary types now run businesses and they are very well connected with the police", said Stefanovic. "These are relationships that have not been broken since October 5th [2000]," when Milosevic stepped down in the face of a popular uprising.

"We need a new government and a consensus around a new constitution," Stefanovic added."We need to rebuild the state from its foundations, or we will not get out of this crisis."

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