As budgets shrink, class sizes expand

What appears to Jakubka as obvious, though, is actually a question of deep debate. For many, Tennessee's Project STAR is the definitive document. Since its release in 1990, it has provided convincing evidence that smaller class sizes in kindergarten through third grade help students socially and academically throughout their entire lives. It is largely responsible for the spread of the class-size movement during the 1990s.

Since then, however, results have been less clear. While academic achievement has risen since the California initiative began, a study by the Class Size Reduction Research Consortium was unable to confirm that class sizes were a primary factor. The reason: the program was put together so hastily that researchers acknowledged they couldn't keep up.

That's a telling admission, some say. Unlike Tennessee, which methodically built up its program over years, many other states cobbled together their plans quickly - so they didn't miss the next big education trend. California's plan, for instance, was almost an afterthought, conceived and implemented in a matter of weeks after former Gov. Pete Wilson realized there would be a $1 billion surplus.

"We picked the 20-to-1 ratio based on how much money we had to spend," says Brett McFadden of the Association of California School Administrators in Sacramento. "We do these huge social experiments, but we do them with a political agenda rather than social data."

Now, the last states to buy in to the class-size fad are among the first looking to get out. Last year, California spent nearly $1.7 billion on its class-size initiative. With budgets tight, school districts want that money without the restrictions of class sizes. And without the long-term commitment and compelling research to back up such a costly program, more legislators are listening.

"It's a question of priorities," says Carol Kocivar of the California Parent-Teacher Association in Sacramento. "If you don't hold the line on what you believe is good for children, then it is going to disappear."

Most experts don't go that far. But they do suggest that, because of cost, funding for such initiatives is likely to ebb and flow even more than for other education programs, which are all historically vulnerable to the boom and bust of state budgets.

"When you hit a year like this one, it's not unforeseen that something like this would happen," says Kathy Christie of the Education Commission of the States in Denver. "Very expensive initiatives like this are the first to go."

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