New Turkish leader lifts US hopes

Those who know Erdogan say he has a persuasive gift that has yet to fail him. While Gul boasts fluent English and international experience, Erdogan has a knack for communicating - a crucial talent at time when most Turks say they don't see a solid case for war against Iraq. "You explain something to him, and five minutes later, he can speak about it for a half an hour," says Mevlut Cavusoglu, a member of parliament.

Erdogan approached Mr. Cavusoglu, a businessman with a US graduate degree in economics, to join the AK Party because he wanted bright, conservative people - not religious fanatics. "He is a very realistic person," says Cavusoglu.

It's a description that doesn't quite fit Erdogan's established persona. Supporters of Turkey's strictly secular democracy have viewed him as something of a firebrand seeking a more Islamic state; Turks took a liking to Erdogan because they expect him to challenge the system. Few anticipated his practical side.

While Erdogan opposes the state ban on women wearing Muslim headscarves in official places - he hasn't touched the issue since his party swept elections.

Now, he comes into office at a moment when the United Nations has declared that it is also decision time on Cyprus, an island divided into Greek and Turkish-controlled areas since 1974.

Erdogan backs a UN peace plan that would unite Cyprus as two federal regions linked by a central government. While the Turkish military and the Turkish Cypriot leader have scoffed at the plan, fearing that eventually the island will be turned over to Greece, Erdogan has other goals in mind. An acceptance of the UN plan will let Cyprus into the European Union, and help Turkey's bid to join, too.

"Erdogan is much more of a pragmatic person than Abdullah Gul," says Cengiz Candar, a columnist with the newspaper Tercuman. "The elite think Gul is a soft-spoken man and Erdogan is a wild man. But they are mistaken in that Gul is more doctrinaire and Erdogan is much more concerned with the dictates of realpolitik."

To be sure, few here expected that Erdogan's inner circle would turn out to be more pro-American than Gul's. Then again, observers note, Erdogan has President Bush to thank for inviting him to the White House after November's elections and thereby recognizing him as Turkey's de facto leader, something no one in the Turkish establishment dared do.

"Erdogan had so many problems vis-à-vis the legal system and with the army," notes Mr. Cakir. "Bush gave him enormous legitimacy, and so when you get something, you should give something in return."

Erdogan was angry when parliament rejected a tentative agreement with the US. Over a grueling meeting the following day, Erdogan berated party members, political sources close to him say, for voting according to their whim, and failing to "act responsibly." Yet, before the vote, Erdogan had not demanded full party discipline, meaning that anyone who votes against will be thrown out. "He's very democratic," says Cavusoglu, "sometimes he's too democratic."

But Erdogan, not yet 50, is a political work in progress. Some observers say the fact that he didn't go to Siirt to campaign evokes a new, superconfident Erdogan.

And when he visited just before the November ballot, Cakir says, people commented on an obvious distortion to his usually trim, athletic build - the bulk of a bulletproof vest. "For the first time, he was wearing this.... Before that, Tayyip was always just a man among his people. Something changed."

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