US diplomatic strategy in Turkey based on outdated roadmap

Yesterday, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the head of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party announced that the government would pursue another vote in parliament, but failed to specify when. In the interim, local by-elections on Sunday in the southeastern Turkish city of Siirt, would pave the way for Mr. Erdogan, who was banned from holding office until AK Party parliamentarians overturned laws that stood in his way, to become prime minister. Erdogan would probably need another week to install a new government and rally support for a second vote.

That could be two weeks too many. If the Bush administration decides to push ahead in its war strategy, Turkey would lose approximately $15 billion in grants and loans, plus Washington's vigorous backing in dealings with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union.

Monday, Turkey's stocks plunged more than 10 percent on the news of Parliament's rejection - recovering partially yesterday. Equally important, Turkey could stand to lose its role, hammered out in months of negotiations, in determining the military and political arrangements during and after a war in Iraq.

Observers are surprised that Turkey's military did not put more muscle behind Saturday's vote, given Washington's tilt toward Turkey's interests above Iraqi Kurdish ones. "The political and military deal was a really good one for the Turks, and they are throwing that all out the window," says Dr. Bulent Aliriza, the head of the Turkey project at the Center for Strategic and International Affairs in Washington.

Still he says, there should have been ongoing dialogue at a higher-level, instead of an assumption that the details could be worked out. Ammunition, tanks, and other heavy war machinery, waiting at the port of Iskenderun, should perhaps not have been sent to Turkey's shores as though Ankara's help were a done deal. "America could have asked, okay, what's your biggest problem with this?' Instead you had these confrontational negotiations on an almost daily basis. There could have been a different way of negotiating," he says.

"This is diplomacy 101 between two allies," adds Aliriza. " I would put both down to the malaise in the relationship. This is a relationship that has long needed redefinition and renewal of the marriage vows."

But the Bush administration is not keen to give up on Turkey for reasons that go well beyond military strategy. Turkey, if not on board, will sap US aims to show that a war against Saddam Hussein is a just war with international backing. Moreover, turning the boats around and re-routing them to the Persian Gulf would take a week to 10 days, military experts say - not much different than waiting to see if Turkey will come around.

In the meantime, the US could avoid thinking out loud about Plan B or suggesting that Turkey will be punished if it does not play along, says Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Riza Kocukoglu, a military analyst at Yeditepe University in Istanbul.

"The U.S. must give a guarantee not to create a Kurdish state in northern Iraq, and not keep talking about Plan B," a codeword for moving ahead with war plans without Turkey, he says. "This could create a better atmosphere."

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