On brink of war, few exits remain

Mr. Jentleson says a "deal" among international leaders that builds on the US toughness and achieves US goals without war is still possible - but it would have to be brokered "at the head-of-state level." Relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, French President Jacques Chirac, and German Chancellor Gerhard Schröeder have not been "engaged" at the level and intensity that would facilitate such an accord, he says.

Still, the channels for reaching what Mr. Barkey calls an "iron-clad agreement" remain open.

Russian experts note that the White House this week received a high-level envoy from President Putin. Vladimir Voloshin told National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice - as well as Bush, in a few-minute chat with the president - that Russia considers the door to a compromise on the clash of visions in the United Nations Security Council still open.

The Russians also claim they have a commitment from Mr. Hussein for "full cooperation" with UN weapons inspections. Barkey says Hussein would have to act "immediately and dramatically" to force any detour in the US path. "At the same time, it would be difficult for us to go to war if televisions around the world are full of scenes of the Iraqi regime destroying missiles and tons of anthrax."

The idea that the massive US military deployment in the Gulf region and months of bellicose rhetoric by the Bush administration makes it hard to back down now is also countered by those who say America's standing in the world would rise if a "peace through show of force" solution were reached. "The US wouldn't lose face if it decided not to go to war after the scenario of full destruction" of Iraqi arms, Barkey says. "In fact American prestige would be enhanced."

One tricky aspect of the US even looking like it was backing away from an attack is the likelihood that it would embolden Hussein to avoid disarming. "Already we see the huge international antiwar demonstrations having an impact in Iraq, in the end that kind of thing may make it more likely the US throws up its hands and decides we just have to do this," says Stephen Baker, a retired admiral and senior analyst at the Center for Defense Information in Washington.

And of course Hussein's full disarmament doesn't answer Bush's demand for regime change in Iraq. The President has embraced the vision of some of his top aides of a democratic Iraq that would serve as a model for a wave of change in the Middle East - a vision Bush was to have outlined Wednesday night in a Washington speech.

Accepting anything less than war with Iraq now might bolster Bush's image and views of his judgment for many both at home and abroad. But it would certainly wound his credibility with others who expect this war to kill a number of birds with one stone.

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