Bumps in Middle East 'road map'

In mid-January, Sharon publicly dismissed the quartet and its plan, telling Newsweek magazine that "the quartet is nothing! Don't take it seriously! There is [another] plan that will work." In an attempt to calm the controversy caused by his comments, Israel released a statement saying that it and the US "see eye to eye" within the framework of the quartet.

In late January, The Forward, a newspaper based in New York, described what that shared vision might entail. Attributing its story to high-level Israeli and US sources, The Forward said the two countries had a plan to establish a "demilitarized Palestinian state with temporary borders."

Apart from comments by Secretary of State Colin Powell, the US was largely silent, which worries some observers. "We'll see if the US will hold to the road map," says Palestinian Interior Minister Hani al Hassan. "It's a question."

The plan described in The Forward jibes with changes a Sharon-appointed team recently suggested for the road map. "We think there are things that could be better drafted and terminology better suited to what the road map is supposed to be: a practical implementation of the message put forth by President Bush," explains Alan Baker, a Foreign Ministry legal adviser.

The Israeli version details more than 100 adjustments to the original road map, according to Ha'aretz newspaper. The plan:

• eliminates the 2005 timetable set out in the road map and in Mr. Bush's speech.

• sharpens the map's vague reference to a Palestinian state with the "characteristics of sovereignty" by detailing a demilitarized state with Israeli-controlled entrances, exits, and airspace;

• requires Palestinians to meet a series of demands - including establishing a cease-fire and launching political reforms - before Israel does anything. The original road map requires Israel to take several steps, including dismantling settlement outposts, allowing Palestinian officials to travel, and halting home demolitions and the destruction of infrastructure.

Mr. Baker stresses that a Palestinian cease-fire is essential to build the public support Sharon needs for a peace plan. "When terrorism stops and [there's] no need to respond to it, then we can set about putting this in place," he says.

Yet ongoing fighting in Gaza looks likely to stymie that hope. In response to Palestinian mortar fire, the Israeli army has split Gaza into three parts and pursued Hamas leaders who, predictably, swear to continue their struggle. More than 40 Gazans have been killed in the past 10 days, and cease-fire talks scheduled to begin Monday in Cairo were canceled.

The result of continued violence and reduced road-map demands could well be a "terrible vicious circle," says Yossi Alpher, former head of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies. "How can you end this by ... expecting [Palestinians] to launch reforms ... with the very limited political horizon Sharon is offering ... on an open-ended timetable?" he asks.

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