Driving forces in war-wary nations

For months, diplomats from France, Germany, Russia, and China have bobbed and weaved in the hushed chamber of the UN Security Council, attempting to slow or block what many in their countries see as a US rush toward war with Iraq.

Much of their opposition stems from a genuine adversity toward combat, at least in this instance. But besides its principles, each nation is also considering a mix of economic realities and national interests that tend to color its decision.

Among these issues: domestic constituencies strongly opposed to war with Iraq; leaders' desires to undercut the US on the world stage; lucrative contracts to develop oil fields with Iraq; and billions Iraq owes them in unpaid foreign debt.

It's this mix of higher ideals and lower desires that has helped make the Security Council debate so protracted, say some experts. An examination of some of these motives might help explain why arguments in coming days - as the Council considers actions that make make war all but inevitable - could well become explosive.

"These countries have cross-cutting interests," says Jim Walsh, an expert on international security at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. "I think all of them genuinely think this is a bad idea. But these countries all have things they want to accomplish that would be much easier if they have a positive relationship with the US."

Among the five permanent Security Council members, France is the most adamant against moving too quickly toward war with Iraq.

As many as 6 million of its 60 million people are Muslim, and most of the country - 77 percent according to a French poll earlier this month - oppose war with Iraq.

Moreover, both France and Germany have dealt with terrorism much longer than the US, going back to the early 1970s. And both countries, experts say, are worried that a war with Iraq will increase the likelihood of retaliatory terrorist strikes on their countries.

But France also has economic interests that would be more lucrative if Saddam Hussein stays in power. Iraq France's TotalFinaElf has contracts with Iraq to develop the Majnoon and Bin Umar fields, once sanctions are lifted. In addition, Iraq owes France billions in foreign debt accrued from arms sales in the 1970s and '80s, which experts say could be virtually uncollectible in the case of war.

"Most of these governments stand to make some money, so they do have some interest in the current Iraqi government surviving," says Mike Lynch, managing director of Strategic Energy and Economic Resources in Boston. "It's not trivial amounts of money. Once it's developed, the oil will be 2.5 million barrels per day."

France, too, has a desire to reclaim a leading role in Europe, if not the world. "France wants to undercut the US and reduce its superpower status and try to create a greater place in Europe for France," says Robert Pfaltzgraf, an international-relations expert at Tufts University's Fletcher School in Medford, Mass.

But Mr. Pfaltzgraf asserts there's a paradox in that desire. He points out that the parity France has with the US on the Security Council is likely to be undermined if France protests too much, or goes as far as to veto the new resolution. If the Security Council is marginalized, as President Bush argues it will be if it becomes only a debating vehicle with no strength, then France will have undermined its own position.

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