In US, support for war is rising

Nor is the public expressing much of a rush to war: Many Americans say they'd be comfortable giving inspectors a few more weeks or even months to search for weapons - a response that was also common in the run-up to the Persian Gulf War, when nearly half the public wanted to give sanctions more time.

As a result, some analysts say Powell needs not only to provide evidence that Iraq is hiding weapons - but also evidence that inspectors are not up to the task of disarmament. "The question is whether Colin Powell can convince the public that it's impossible for the inspectors to find those weapons," says Steven Kull, director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland.

Still, many are jumping to this conclusion themselves. "Given what Saddam Hussein has done to his own people, and that he has not followed UN dictates, we have a moral responsibility to go and get him," says John Kretschmer, an employee at a healthcare conglomerate outside Chicago. "The more allies, the better. But at some point in time, we need to go in."

One thing making this conflict unusual, say analysts, is that many Americans see it as a continuation of the first Gulf War. Not only is there a sense of unfinished business, but Hussein has remained in the public eye as a threat. "Americans have been thinking about Saddam Hussein for 10 years," says Karlyn Bowman, a public-opinion expert at the American Enterprise Institute. "They've thought since the first Gulf War that this is somebody they'd be happy to get rid of."

This might also be fueling the sense that war is unavoidable. "I think there perhaps is an [element of] inevitability here that we haven't seen in past situations," she says.

Standing in line at the post office in Hallandale Beach, Fla., Democrat Shawn Gray expresses exactly this sort of impatience with Hussein: "Saddam is a madman and he has to be expelled. We should go to war even if we have to go alone," he says. "I have confidence in Colin Powell. If they say they have enough evidence to pursue a war, then they have it."

The Gulf War may also stand as a model for how Americans envision any future conflict with Iraq - including the likely number of casualties. In 1991, more than 40 percent of Americans polled by Gallup said they couldn't guess how many soldiers might be killed; 15 percent feared it would be more than 50,000. This year, 45 percent believe it will be fewer than 3,000, and 30 percent guess fewer than 1,000.

The major event since the Gulf War - the attacks of Sept. 11 - seems to have toughened resolve to go to war. According to Gallup, a majority of Americans believe there is a link between Iraq and Al Qaeda - even though only a small number say they have seen clear evidence. If Powell provides more compelling evidence on this front, it could move opinion even further.

And analysts agree that support would almost certainly spike as soon as the war actually began, as Americans rally behind their president and the troops. "When the time comes, [Americans] think they should line up behind their commander in chief," says Mr. Kull.

• Jennifer LeClaire in Miami and Terry Costlow in Chicago contributed to this report.

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