As UN speech nears, signs of support for US

In another sign of the high-stakes diplomacy going on, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow yesterday. The Russian leader last week indicated a willingness to move to the US side of the divide should Iraq continue to stonewall on full cooperation. For his part, Mr. Berlusconi said there "must be complete unity" in the international community in fighting all aspects of terrorism. He also made clear he includes the Iraqi regime in his purview of international terrorism threats.

Publicly, the debate boils down to war versus containment - with even some prominent American military and political figures arguing that keeping Hussein "in a box" is working, and outweighs the risks posed by a war.

But behind the scenes, some signs of support for the US - and especially for its prewar maneuverings - are emerging.

For example, Jordan and Turkey, two countries where public opposition to war remains fierce, are allowing US forces based in their territory to launch preparatory operations into Iraq.

And Italy's Berlusconi is one of eight European leaders who expressed support for the US position in a letter last week. The letter demonstrated the deep rifts in Europe over Iraq and kept alive the controversy sparked by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's comment about the "new" and "old" Europes.

In fact, some analysts say the rift demonstrates how the subject of Iraq is now as much a defining issue for Europe - and for relations with the US - as it is about disarmament and international terrorism. "If France goes on with its tough line, it could provoke a major crisis in Europe, and France would be the first victim of that crisis," France's Moreau Defarges says.

John Hulsman, a specialist in European affairs at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, says that while the Germans are "off the charts" with their opposition to the US position, the French are unlikely to remain out on a limb against their own interests.

"The French understand their national interests. They invented the concept, so in the end they'll come along," he says.

At the same time, Moreau Defarges says countries' positions are gradually being driven by a perceived need to side with the US, the world's only superpower. "The feeling about war itself has not changed. There is still this strong feeling this is a stupid war. It is concerns about relations with the US that overwhelm those considerations."

In this context, Powell's presentation could provide the French especially with the opportunity they need to begin easing away from the German "no war" view. "Chirac can find common ground with Blair," Mr. Hulsman says, "but Powell can provide the fig leaf that will allow the French to come on board."

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