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posted 12:30 p.m. ET/9:30 a.m. PT January 31, 2003.

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Al Qaeda: US, Brit and Russia experts see no links to Iraq
Powell: Planning for his 'Stevenson' moment




Intelligence experts see no Iraq, Al Qaeda links

Linking Iraq with the terrorist forces of Al Qaeda has been a preoccupation for President Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair. But it's been a preoccupation without much joy, as there has been scant, if any evidence that such a link exists. Yet that doesn't mean that they don't keep trying.

CBS News reports that on Thursday, the White House attempted to connect the October, 2002 murder of diplomat Lawrence Foley to " an Al Qaeda member who is resident in Baghdad." Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said the man fled to Iraq after being wounded in Afghanistan. "There are Al Qaeda in Baghdad," said Mr. Armitage.

But a flurry of other diplomats and intelligence and terrorism experts disagreed with Armitage yesterday. Reuters reports that the Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said this his country had never seen any proof of a connection between Al Qaeda and Iraq. Mr. Ivanov said: "If we receive such information we will analyze it. Statements made so far are not backed by concrete documents and concrete facts."

That lack of "concrete facts and documents" was also cited by British and US intelligence analysts, according to the Sydney Morning Herald. The analysts say are that the links are "tangential at best, and the available evidence falls far short of proving a secret relationship between Baghdad and Osama bin Laden."

That case relies heavily on a man called Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian member of the Al Qaeda leadership who was wounded in the leg in the US-led bombing of Afghanistan. In late 2001, according to US intelligence sources, he sought medical treatment in Iran but was deported and fled to Baghdad, where his leg was amputated. Telephone calls he made to his family in Jordan were intercepted. The question is whether Saddam Hussein's regime knew who he was and whether it offered him any assistance. "Yes, we have him telling his family I'm here in Baghdad in hospital, but he's not saying: 'And by the way, I'm getting all this help from Saddam'," a well-informed source in Washington said.
Al-Zarqawi later fled north to join forces with Ansar al-Islam, a militant Islamic group. The Herald reports that the ties between Ansar al-Islam and Iraq are "circumstantial," at best.

The Scotsman reports on another expert who doubts any ties exist between Iraq and Al Qaeda, Rohan Gunaratna, a researcher on terrorism and political violence at St Andrews University in Scotland. Mr. Gunaranta, who has written six books on terrorism, including one of the best known on Al Qaeda, says he has found nothing whatsoever to connect Saddam Hussein with Osama bin Laden's terror network.

He insisted there was "no documented evidence whatsoever" that Saddam was involved in the 11 September attacks, adding: "Iraq has not wanted to take on the US. It does not have the capability and has never wanted to repeat the Gulf War." If anything, said Gunaratna, the relationship between Iraq and terrorism could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, with Saddam enlisting the help of underground networks to thwart western military action. "If you constantly demonize someone in this way, then Iraq has no incentive to avoid terrorism. Iraq has been involved with Palestinian groups such as Hamas, but not with Al Qaeda."

The BBC reports that new evidence shows that Al Qaeda was much closer to assembling a dirty bomb during its time in Afghanistan than had been previously thought. British officials said on Thursday Bin Laden now had gained the expertise and possibly the materials to build a crude radioactive bomb. Officials say the "bomb" has never been recovered but at least one leading Al Qaeda weapons expert from Herat is still at large.

Reuters reports that Italian police have arrested 28 Pakistanis in an "Al Qaeda linked bust." Military police burst into an apartment in central Naples on Wednesday night as part of a routine sweep against illegal immigration and ended up discovering enough explosives to blow up a three-story building, officials said on Friday.

Al Qaeda was also blamed for a blast outside Kandahar, Afghanistan that killed at least 15 people when a bus hit a land mine. The incident happened near an army barracks, who authorities believe was the real target of the mine. "This was an Al Qaeda attack for sure, and could have some links to Hekmatyar [an Afghan warlord fighting alongside Al Qaeda]," Ustad Nazir Jan, police chief of Kandahar, told Reuters.

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Powell prepares for Stevenson moment

US Secretary of State Colin Powell's speech to the UN next week is being described as his "Stevenson" moment, an illusion to the famous speech the late US Ambassador Adlai Stevenson gave to the UN Security Council during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Stevenson dramatically produced aerial photos that showed Russian missiles in Cuba.

But Fox News reports that government officials are already trying to downplay the idea that Mr. Powell will be present "smoking gun" evidence as Stevenson did in 1962. "There are some countries, some elements of public opinion, that think the US needs a smoking gun of some sort," the US official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Well we don't have a smoking gun and Powell's not coming with it."

But Powell is bringing evidence, the official said, that will show that Iraq is in clear material breach of the UN's resolution calling on it to disarm.

But Powell will still face a tough audience, the Strait Times of Singapore reports. Russian Ambassador Sergei Lavrov said the evidence Powell presents must be "convincing." Pressed for details, he added that "we would like to see undeniable proof." But GOP Rep. Jim Kolbe told the Tucson Citizen that the evidence will be convincing. Kolbe said he and other congressmen received a classified briefing from Powell this week that provided new information, some of which Powell will share with the United Nations Security Council on Feb. 5. "We got a flavor of the kind of stuff that's there and I think it's pretty persuasive," Kolbe said. "It's all manner of intelligence gathering from all kinds of sources."

Meanwhile CNN reports that a German court found two businessmen guilty of breaking arms export laws by helping Iraq to acquire drills that could be used to make the bore of a "supergun" that could fire nuclear, biological or chemical shells.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair visited President Bush Friday for a meeting that many assumed was a strategy session about an Iraq invasion. CNN reports that Blair is risking much with his pro-US stance. "Blair now risks splitting his own party, alienating his two biggest partners in Europe – France and Germany – and perhaps even losing office, so unpopular is his support for war with Iraq in Britain."

"If it goes wrong, Tony Blair could be gone by Christmas, and that's why he's looking tired. He's looking stressed," says Piers Morgan, editor-in-chief of the Daily Mirror. "And I think he's fractious with the media, fractious with the British public, and all the public too is 75 to 80 percent against this war."
But Blair hasn't changed his mind, regardless of the opposition at home. He told the BBC Friday that he believes Saddam Hussein will not comply with the UN requests for him to disarm.

Also...
Pakistani scholar detained by INS ( MSNBC)
Daniel Pipes: The war's most agonizing issue - why enhanced scrutiny of Muslims makes good sense ( CNSNews.com)
Immigration status: Seattle city employees cannot ask ( Seattle Times)
I Beg to Differ: The American emperor has no clothes ( Toronto Globe and Mail)
In a bizarre twist, global bankers love Lula and despair of Bush ( Guardian)

• Feedback appreciated. E-mail Steven Savides at savidess@csmonitor.com.


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