The State of the Union: Win friends, influence nations
When President Bush mounts the podium for Tuesday's State of the Union address, he should keep in mind that his audience includes people around the globe. Though he is accountable to the US electorate, Mr. Bush's appeal - or lack thereof - to the rest of the world will help determine the fate of critical foreign-policy initiatives and, potentially, his presidency.
Bush's success as an orator has often hinged on which side of the ocean was listening. Bush's speech nine days after the Sept. 11 attacks was hailed as a triumph at home, showing that the novice president had the mettle to take on the terrorist threat. But in other countries, his you're-with-us-or-against-us formulation seemed starkly naive and oblivious to the political nuances of unstable regions. His promise of a "crusade" against Al Qaeda sounded to Americans like verve or bravado. But to Muslims, it carried frightening historical connotations.
In last year's State of the Union, the last-minute addition of North Korea to the "axis of evil" made for a memorable rhetorical flourish, but struck much of the world as reckless provocation.
The administration's attitude seems to be that a superpower like the US has better things to worry about than global popularity. To be sure, US military might and its unique position in the world make a degree of resentment inevitable. The administration appears convinced that when push comes to shove, pragmatism will trump the domestic politics of other countries, and governments will override the people's passions in favor of the economic and security imperatives that drive support for the US. Ever macho, the administration seems to think that showing that it cares about what others think would be interpreted as a sign of weakness.
In the meantime, anti-US sentiment has swelled in ways that directly hurt US policy. Popular outcry in Turkey may mean the US can't secure the full basing privileges it seeks, complicating military planning for Iraq. Anti-US sentiment in South Korea is surging during the most dangerous and politically sensitive period on the Korean Peninsula in years. Propelled to a second term by his defiance of the US over Iraq, German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder is now in a position to make life difficult for Bush in the UN Security Council.
Polls confirm the disturbing trend. A Pew Center Study in December showed America's image slipping between 2000 and 2002 in 19 of 27 countries surveyed. Ever attuned to the polls, the Bush administration should take these polls seriously. Heads of state in what should be some of the friendliest capitals are now caught between the historic, cultural, military, and commercial pull of the US and populations who increasingly view the Bush administration as an exemplar of the adage that absolute power corrupts absolutely. More than before, these rulers now preside over democracies, meaning that public opinion can no longer simply be suppressed or overlooked.
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