Regime change without war?

An Iraq without Saddam Hussein, but getting there without a war - it's the idea that won't go away.

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and other administration figures are touting Mr. Hussein's exile as one way to avoid war. Saudi Arabia and other Arab leaders are making overtures to Iraq about such a scenario. Word has it that even President Bush has broached the idea with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Yet even as most Hussein experts doubt that the Iraqi leader would ever agree to leave voluntarily the country he has ruled for more than two decades, the idea retains life for two reasons: It would spare the Iraqi people a devastating war and the region a period of destabilization, something Arab leaders especially are keen to avoid.

Ideas ranging from forcing Hussein's exile to ways of fomenting an uprising among his lieutenants are among the points to be discussed when the region's powerhouses meet in Turkey this week. The purpose of the summit is to discuss how, in the face of American determination to see Hussein removed from power, to avoid a war.

But the idea of exile also raises questions about regime change in Iraq - and how much change in Hussein's regime will be necessary for the US and the Iraqi opposition to consider it a success.

"We want regime change, not just for Saddam to leave the country," says Talib Aziz Alhamdani, a founding member of the Iraqi National Congress, an umbrella organization for opposition groups. "We don't want a situation where you finish off Hitler, but you leave the Nazis in control."

In Iraq's case, that means that in addition to Hussein, a certain number of his top advisers and supporters would have to leave the country. At the same time, the Baath Party, which brought Hussein to power and has provided the structure for his political longevity, would have to be dismantled and forbidden from participating in Iraq's reformation.

Without that, Iraq experts and opposition leaders say, Hussein could too easily continue to rule the country, much the way a drug lord runs his criminal empire from prison.

"Saddam has created a party state, and as party states go, one that is more fascist than communist, but as such you need to dismantle it, not just decapitate it," says Joshua Muravchik, an expert in democratization at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) in Washington.

But even though US officials talk about Hussein and his power structure opting to leave Iraq, they have been quieter about the chances of offering immunity from trial in an international tribunal - something Iraqis say would be essential for Hussein to consider leaving. But on Sunday, Mr. Rumsfeld indicated for the first time that the US might be agreeable to this sort of plan

Page: 1 | 2