European leaders, public at odds over war with Iraq

As US warships ply the oceans to move within striking distance of Iraq, a gap is widening between European leaders who support the US-led effort and a public increasingly opposed to war.

Even staunch US allies such as British Prime Minister Tony Blair and French President Jacques Chirac are on the defensive as public opposition grows and opponents in their political camps speak out against attacking Iraq.

Public-opinion polls indicate a growing sense among ordinary Europeans that weapons inspectors on the ground in Iraq have failed to turn up the smoking gun that would justify a major military offensive to remove Saddam Hussein. That is making it harder for European leaders to justify support for action against Iraq, especially as President Bush does not seem convinced about going to war to oust Saddam.

"The political basis for going to war has been significantly eroded over the past few weeks. The Americans have not been able to make a case," says François Heisbourg, head of the Foundation for Strategic Research in France. "If there is no war, then who will have blinked? Saddam will have won, and that's a really big credibility problem."

In the past week, German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder has met with Mr. Blair and Mr. Chirac and discussed the Iraq crisis. Germany and France want any decision to go to war against Iraq to be dependent on a new UN resolution that would be drafted after weapons inspectors present their findings on Jan. 27.

Britain, America's closest ally, does not want to allow the Security Council to tie its hands on Iraq.

"At the turn of the year, it became clear that people in Europe are simply not convinced about going to war with Iraq," says Simon Atkinson, research director at the MORI polling agency in London. "And if there is no UN mandate, there is even less support."

A new poll of French opinion to be published Friday in the French newspaper L'Humanité demonstrates the continued rise of public opposition to war. Asked by the CSA polling agency whether they would support US intervention in Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein, 66 percent of those who responded said they were opposed, up from 58 percent in a poll conducted in August. Support for military action fell to 24 percent from 32 percent.

As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, France is almost certain to support US military action against Iraq in order to preserve its international standing, say analysts. Chirac has begun preparing French troops to go to war, even as public opposition mounts. Lawmakers in his own parliamentary group, the Union for a Presidential Majority, and Socialist members of Parliament have signed a petition against any war in Iraq.

"The government's view is that if the US goes to war with Iraq, we cannot afford to be absent," says Georges Le Guelte, research director at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations in Paris. "If we are not there, the government believes French weight in international affairs will suffer."

Some analysts note, however, that the apparently solid domestic opposition to war may be deceptive. Antiwar sentiment was equally high in January 1991, just before the Gulf War started. But once the campaign began, opinion shifted, with 67 percent of French supporting the military campaign.

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