Preludes to war and its aftermath

For context, Professor Nordhaus notes that the cost of the 1991 Gulf war, in 2002 dollars, was about $80 billion. "[T]he Bush administration has made no serious public estimate of the costs of the coming war," writes Nordhaus, who was a member of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Carter administration. "The public and the Congress are unable to make informed judgments about the realistic costs and benefits ... when none are given."

There seems to be no shortage of debate about the war's strategic implications. Andrew Bacevich, a Boston University professor of international relations, argues that "the time has come for us as Americans ... to acknowledge the reality that we do preside over an empire of a sort. "The aim of this empire, he says, is to preserve and expand American freedom and prosperity, in part by promoting secular democracy and free markets abroad.

In that context, he told participants at a conference last week at Bar-Ilan University outside Tel Aviv that the US campaign can be seen as "war to establish a bridgehead of American power to transform Iraq into ... the first Arab democracy" and thus further the interests of the American empire.

Richard Haass, director of the State Department policy planning staff, spoke in similar if less imperial terms to a Washington audience in early December. "Freed from the weight of oppression," he said, "Iraqis will be able to share in the progress and prosperity of our time." Mr. Haass also said US "efforts to promote democracy throughout the Muslim world have sometimes been halting and incomplete," in order to serve other US interests, such as the steady supply of oil, but that this "democratic exception" would have to end.

For Mr. Fussell, professor emeritus at the University of Pennsylvania, the most troubling aspect of the run-up to war is the lack of criticism amid evidence of so much preparation. "Thoughtless patriotism has suddenly become popular," he says. Another factor may be the ignorance of most Americans about the nature of war. "They have no idea what war means," Fussell says. "They think it means heading drone airplanes toward ignorant peasants and hoping that it will be all right."

Mr. Keegan, the defense editor of Britain's Daily Telegraph newspaper, says he is "suspicious of people talking about the nonmilitary consequences" of a war. "The trouble with the antiwar parties is that they try to reinforce their position by making presumptions about the costs of the war ... and they don't know any more than you or I do." A supporter of Hussein's removal, he is unperturbed by worries about mass casualties, environmental destruction or a high price tag. "The war will be over so quickly there won't be any destruction," Keegan says.

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