Preludes to war and its aftermath

The US may delay a war against Iraq at the urging of the United Nations and key allies, but many people around the world are still busy preparing for the conflict and its aftermath, some with dread and some with a kind of enthusiasm.

On the ground, the players seem to be moving inexorably into place. US war planners are arriving at their temporary headquarters in the Persian Gulf kingdom of Qatar as Iraqis buy rifles and ponder whether staying home or heading for a bomb shelter will be the smarter move when the time comes.

Creating the impression that war is inevitable, even as President Bush and other officials insist that it is not, may be a "scare piece," in the phrase of American literary critic Paul Fussell, who has written on the often sanitized horrors of combat. But it also disconcerts him to watch a nation calmly prepare for something as chaotic and horrific as war. "I find it impossible to believe except as a kind of fantasy or an attempt to frighten the other side," he says.

On the other hand, observes the British military historian, Sir John Keegan, war "is much more chaotic if you don't prepare."

From Washington to London to Tel Aviv - and in many other places - anticipating the effects of what will likely be America's most significant military engagement since the Vietnam war has become a subject of intense endeavor.

At the UN and private relief agencies, aid workers are girding for the aftermath. An internal UN assessment of "likely humanitarian scenarios," leaked late last month, foresees that up to a half-million Iraqis will require "treatment for traumatic injuries."

US officials are crafting a new strategic vision for the Middle East, one promising to do better at promoting democracy, in part to justify US demands for "regime change" in Iraq. Other experts see in the US campaign against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein evidence that America has begun to embrace the idea that it leads an "empire."

Some interested parties are clearly relishing the prospect of the US toppling Hussein and attempting to reinvent the only Middle Eastern state endowed with both oil and a sizable, well-educated populace. Iraqi exiles are scrambling to create a role for themselves in the government of a "liberated" Iraq. An Israeli academic told an audience last week that there were so many likely positive outcomes to a US-led war against Iraq that it was worth praying for. But political scientist Efraim Inbar added a note of caution: "We must hope the Americans do know what they're doing."

Even amid this global discourse, some are saying the discussions are not broad enough. Yale economics professor William Nordhaus faults the Bush administration for not considering - out loud, at any rate - the economic impact of the conflict. In a recent issue of The New York Review of Books, he calculates that waging war against Iraq and then rebuilding the country will cost anywhere from $120 billion to $1.6 trillion depending on whether things go favorably or unfavorably for the US and its allies.

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