Troops pour in, scenarios narrow

America's rapidly expanding military presence in the Persian Gulf is raising a fundamental question: Is the buildup itself pushing the US toward war?

On one level, the troop presence is reinforcing US diplomatic efforts to try to resolve the crisis peacefully. It puts additional pressure on Saddam Hussein to be more forthcoming about what weapons he does have and to comply with UN demands.

At the same time, however, the presence of so many soldiers in the region will ultimately help force the decision of whether the US should go to war. The huge commitment of troops, tanks, and other gear - demanding complex logistics and timing - cannot be sustained indefinitely.

"By the end of February or March the Bush administration will probably have some sense of how the diplomatic track is playing out and will have to make some tough decisions," says Colin Robinson, an analyst at the Center for Defense Information here.

Since late December, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has ordered the deployment of more than 90,000 troops to the Gulf region. The flow of troops began with the deployment to Kuwait, announced Jan. 3, of the rest of the Third Infantry Division (Mechanized) from Fort Stewart, Ga., and Fort Benning, Ga.

Within about a month, three to four heavy US Army divisions are expected to assemble in the Gulf, where they will marry up with tanks, Bradley fighting vehicles, and other gear prepositioned in the region. Other heavy divisions could include the First Calvary Division based at Fort Hood, Texas, and the First Infantry Division and First Armored Division, both stationed in Germany.

Additional deployments are likely to include one light Army division, such as the helicopter assault troops of the 101st Airborne, analysts say.

Thousands of Marines from expeditionary brigades started heading to the Gulf over the weekend, deploying on ships from Camp Pendleton, Calif., and Camp Lejeune, N.C. They are expected to arrive in the region in three or four weeks, depending on their route.

One US Navy carrier battle group is currently in the Gulf, with another two ready to deploy there in days. US air power is also growing in the region, with more than 400 land- and carrier-based fighters, bombers, helicopters, and rescue aircraft already in position. A modest force of British commandos is expected to join the US troops.

The Pentagon is carrying out "a steady, deliberate buildup to provide the president the flexibility he needs to do what he thinks he needs to do," explains Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Richard Myers.

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