A political theme emerges: class war

America's political debate is converging quickly around one of the most volatile themes in public life: class politics.

It begins this week with a fight over tax policy, but - if the theme takes hold - it could define the terms of the big issues of this year and of the 2004 presidential campaign, from welfare and bankruptcy reform to Medicare and education.

Even before laying out his new economic stimulus plan, President Bush launched a preemptive strike on those who "would like to turn this into class warfare." Some Democrats snatched up the gauntlet. "He's right, but it's Mr. Bush who is waging war on the poor," says Michigan Rep. John Dingell.

Charles Rangel of New York, another senior House Democrat, added: "Never in a time of war have we reduced the tax burden on the most privileged. At the same time ..., we send a disproportionate number of lower- and middle-class kids to fight a war. If this is class warfare, I ask who started it?"

It's a tried theme for Democrats, but not always a successful one. William Jennings Bryan electrified delegates at the 1896 Democratic convention with a withering attack on the GOP for supporting "idle holders of capital" over the "struggling masses." He won the nomination. He lost the election, badly.

Reminding people of class divisions is high-risk politics, and works only in exceedingly bad economic times.

"People appreciate class mobility in this country. They don't see a stratified society, nor do they want one," says Carroll Doherty, editor of the Pew Research Center. "There is a critique of the Bush economic plan that it tilts to the rich," he adds. "The question is: Does it really resonate with people and make a political difference? It depends on the economy. That perception began to hurt Bush's father only when the economy really started to go south."

Overall, Americans don't blame the rich or hate them for their wealth. "They want to be like them," says pollster John Zogby of Zogby International. "The democratization of the investment class has made class warfare a moot issue at least for the time being." Union members with 401(k)s are much more likely to vote Republican than those without, he adds.

A recent Christian Science Monitor/TIPP poll, conducted Dec 2-8, signals:

• Nearly a majority of Americans believe they pay too much in taxes (49%);44 percent say they are taxed "just right."

• 55 percent favor making the 2001 federal tax cuts permanent; 29 percent oppose that.

• 35 percent want Bush's first tax cuts ramped up to take effect immediately; 53 percent want to keep the original schedule. Acceleration is part of the Bush plan.

• 60 percent of respondents were at least somewhat satisfied with current federal economic policies (before the Bush stimulus package.)

However, there are some indications that an erosion of confidence in the economy is beginning to surface.

"More than 20 percent are concerned that a household member may lose a job. Consumer confidence is the weakest, in December, of the past 25 months of polling," says Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence in Oradell, N.J.

The prospect that the economy may slump yet further is reviving a debate within the Democratic Party on how far to take rich/poor themes.

Democratic presidential candidates have long emphasized class differences - and economic disparities - on the campaign trail. In 1992, Bill Clinton reached out to middle class voters, talking of "putting people first." In 2000, Al Gore used even more combative rhetoric, with the slogan "the people versus the powerful." Most recently, in announcing his intention to run for president, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards repeatedly presented himself as a champion of "regular people."

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