Abrupt halt to Mideast diplomacy

Islamic Jihad has only lately become part of the Egyptian-sponsored talks, which have been geared mainly at an agreement between Fatah and the Islamic Resistance Movement, known as Hamas. If Islamic Jihad carried out Sunday's two bombings, it would show that even smaller Palestinian groups can disrupt or subvert the will of the Palestinian majority.

The main aim of the Egyptian-sponsored talks is for the Palestinians to forge a united front with a common political agenda that might include renouncing certain kinds of violence. Until now, Palestinian unity has been more rhetoric than substance. Whereas Hamas wants to create an Islamic state and eliminate Israel, the mainly secular Fatah favors coexistence with Israel. Earlier attempts at a cease-fire, issued by Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat without any attempts at political cohesion, have failed.

If the al-Aqsa Brigades are responsible, as Mr. Rabbani says is more likely, it would illustrate the disarray on the Palestinian side. "Fatah was never the most disciplined movement to begin with, and with the fragmentation they've been undergoing it's not farfetched" to think that its operatives carried out the attack, he says.

Even though some diplomatic observers say that the Egyptian effort represents the most hopeful near-term possibility for an easing of the conflict, Palestinians within the key factions are not of one mind. That is why it is conceivable that senior Fatah officials would be engaged in talks that include discussion of a renunciation of attacks inside Israel at the very time that other Fatah operatives plan and execute just such a strike.

Israel is not impressed by the Egyptian effort. "We've had enough of talks, conferences, conventions - these groups are all cooperating in the destruction of Israel," says Yoni Peled, a spokesman for Israel's Foreign Ministry. "We think it's futile."

In its efforts to stop Palestinian attacks, Israel has contributed to the fragmentation Rabbani mentions by killing or imprisoning many militant leaders, thus degrading the institutional coherence of the Palestinian groups. Israel's military operations during the month of December - when there were no Palestinian attacks inside Israel proper - resulted in the death of some 45 Palestinians, many of them civilians.

Many Israelis agree - although they see little alternative - that these operations plant the seeds of future suicide bombings. So too does the humanitarian situation in the Palestinian territories, where aid agencies say the levels of unemployment, poverty, and frustration are rising.

A UN report issued late last year said the "crisis is fundamentally political - it will continue to worsen unless political decisions are taken to lift [Israel's] closures, curfews and other restrictions on the civilian population."

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