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posted 12:20 p.m. ET/9:20 a.m. PT January 7, 2003.

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N. Korea: Bush says 'no intention of invading'
Iraq: France, UK talk tough




US, N. Korea play Scrabble
Much is being made of a few words from US President George Bush on the North Korea situation.

After a cabinet meeting Monday, Mr. Bush repeated three times that his administration had no intention of attacking North Korea. The New York Times read the remarks as " a security guarantee" and a conciliatory shift in the White House approach to Pyongyang. USA Today saw the remark as a signal that the US may agree to a rudimentary South Korean plan that swaps security assurances from the US for a halt to nuclear weapons programs from North Korea.

US and South Korean officials told the Washington Post, however, that visiting South Korean diplomats offered no such proposal Monday on the first day of talks in Washington between the two allies. A trilateral meeting between Japan, the US, and South Korea is scheduled for today.

The Washington Times, meanwhile, left the news conference with the headline, " Bush promises talks with N. Korea." Bush told reporters, "We'll have dialogue. We've had dialogue with North Korea." The Times says this echoes private remarks from US officials that suggest they feel direct talks are inevitable. However, the article notes, the White House quickly reiterated the US demand that North Korea end its nuclear weapons program before a dialogue can proceed. "Promise" seems to oversell Bush's remark.

Words out of Pyongyang are making news too. Yesterday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) gave North Korea a last chance to end its weapons program before agency officials lodge a complaint with the Security Council. If North Korea fails again to cooperate, it was suggested that the Council would then consider further sanctions on the already isolated nation. The regime shot back today that " sanctions mean a war and the war knows no mercy."

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'No smoking gun' yet on Iraq
The French and British governments appear to be coming around to the White House's way of seeing Iraq.

French President Jacques Chirac told French troops, "It's a soldier's duty to be prepared for anything that may happen. We must be especially attentive to the way in which Iraq adheres to UN Security Council Resolution 1441." At the UN, France led an international effort to tone down the consequences written into the resolution if Iraq failed to satisfy weapons inspectors. Now Mr. Chirac is drawing a connection between military action and noncompliance with the current resolution.

Meanwhile, the British government's reticence over Bush's "axis of evil" philosophy appears over, according to the Sydney Morning Herald. According to the paper, Foreign Secretary Jack Straw is expected to endorse the notion that halting weapons proliferation is tantamount to fighting terrorism.

But Washington isn't hearing what it wants from the IAEA on Iraq. The head of the UN nuclear agency, Mohammed El Baradei, told Reuters, " We haven't yet seen any smoking gun yet, if you like, that Iraq has lied in its declaration on the nuclear issue." Mr. Baradei did note that the inspections are not over, however.

Indeed, the weapons inspectors are expanding their capabilities by using helicopters for the first time. During the weekend, inspectors opened a new operations base in the city of Mosul. Both moves will give teams quicker access to suspect sites. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, after weeks of showing support for the inspections process, reverted to accusing inspectors of spying for foreign governments. Mr. Hussein leveled the same charge against UNSCOM inspectors in the 1990s, resulting in an erosion of international support for the monitoring work as well as changes in the makeup of the new inspections teams.

While Hussein attempts to undermine the inspectors' credibility, it's difficult to gauge whether the whole process has any import anyway. On January 27, the UN inspectors are required to give a progress (not final) report to the Security Council. (See the BBC for an Iraq timetable.) Whether Washington waits much longer after that to hear the final grades is very much unknown. By that point, a considerable US force will have been assembled in the Gulf region. The US Army alerted more than 10,000 reservists to prepare for active duty while the Pentagon considered plans to put a total force of up to 200,000 troops in the region.

If the US wants to avoid fighting in the hot Iraqi summer months, all these boots on the ground will need to march not long after the inspectors' progress report – or else wait out the summer at great monetary expense. The Age of Australia reports that military planners may be able to give Bush the option of waiting until summer by fighting a night war.

Also...
US hears Israel's plea for billions in arms aid ( Washington Times)
FBI: Informant's story about US infiltrators is false ( CNN)
Why embed reporters in military units ( Opinion Journal)
US ads miss mark, Muslims say ( The Christian Science Monitor)

• Feedback appreciated. E-mail Ben Arnoldy at benjamin@csmonitor.com.


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