Democrats face crunch time for '04

Strategists agree that the public won't start paying attention until late next fall, in the run-up to the first primaries. So this early stage of the campaign will be conducted largely within inner circles of the Democratic Party - among contributors, political professionals, and operatives in key states, as well as the media.

"All these candidates are going to spend the next nine months going around talking to the same 40,000 people," said Craig Smith, a top adviser to Senator Lieberman, at a recent panel discussion.

But the first priority is generating cash: In every presidential contest since 1980, the candidate who raised the most money in the year before the election won the nomination.

This is also the first electoral cycle to be governed by the new campaign finance law, which bans unlimited "soft money" contributions to political parties, while raising the limit on individual donations from $1,000 to $2,000. In the Democratic primary battle, this may not make much difference - but it could have a significant effect on the eventual nominee's ability to compete with President Bush, since Democrats have traditionally relied on soft money to close the fundraising gap against Republicans.

Given Mr. Bush's fundraising prowess - and the fact that he's unlikely to face primary opposition, and will probably not accept federal matching funds, freeing him from spending caps - Democrats may also feel pressure to decline public funds. "One of the reasons for starting early is seeing if you can really break the bank, so you don't have to depend on federal funds," says Stephen Wayne, a political scientist at Georgetown University.

This year, because of the compressed primary schedule, less well-funded candidates may face an even greater challenge. Dark-horse Democrats such as Governor Dean may still try to follow the Jimmy Carter strategy of winning support at the grass roots in Iowa and New Hampshire, and then building on strong performances in those primary contests to gain national prominence - and cash.

But analysts point out that the Jimmy Carter method hasn't really worked for anyone since, well, Jimmy Carter. In the 2000 Republican primary battle, for example, Arizona Sen. John McCain's surprise win in New Hampshire wasn't enough to wrest the nomination from Bush, in part because Senator McCain couldn't overcome a financial disadvantage. Democrats this year may have even less time to capitalize on early momentum, making it crucial to have a substantial war chest going in.

A strong performance in Iowa and New Hampshire "can take you a long way - if you have the financial resources to take full advantage of that bump," says Mr. Grossman of the Dean campaign. "And that is a big if."

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