Palestinian factions may curb intifada

Representatives of the two main Palestinian factions are preparing for meetings in Cairo in the coming days that could yield a common political agenda, including a renunciation of terrorist attacks inside Israel.

Mainly at Egypt's instigation, the Islamic Resistance Movement, known as Hamas, and Fatah, the mainstream Palestinian group founded by Yasser Arafat, are contemplating forging a united front, along with other, smaller factions. The two main parties have long been at odds, with Hamas demanding Israel's destruction and Fatah favoring a peace deal.

A statement of common goals that would end certain kinds of attacks on Israel, if it indeed emerges from the Cairo talks, could alter the dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian confrontation, according to Palestinian, Israeli, and diplomatic observers.

For one thing, the Palestinians might achieve a more practical sort of unity, rather than straining to cover divergent tactics and objectives with the appearance of indivisibility.

If the Palestinians do stop attacks within Israel proper - as opposed to strikes against Israelis in the West Bank or Gaza Strip - Prime Minister Ariel Sharon might face greater political pressure to step back from his hardline tactics and negotiate.

An earlier round of Fatah-Hamas talks, held in Cairo in mid-November, failed to produce an agreement. That is only one of several reasons for skepticism about the current effort.

"I'm delighted to be convinced that it's going to be very important," says a Western diplomat who requested anonymity. "But at the moment I remain to be convinced."

A senior Israeli official says a no-attacks-inside-Israel cease-fire should be seen as a "tactical" maneuver, arguing that the Palestinians are hoping to forestall the effects of Mr. Sharon's likely re-emergence as prime minister following elections in January and a possible US-led attack against Iraq. He says the Palestinians are also tiring of Israel's sustained military pressure against them, including the steady "elimination" of Palestinian militants and leaders.

"Hamas is really playing the 'yes, but' game we're all so familiar with," the Israeli official says, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Indeed, Hamas spokesman Ismail Abu Shanab says he does not expect his party to agree to any cease-fire, without a concomitant step from Israel. This week Sharon said his forces would continue killing Palestinian militants suspected of planning attacks against Israeli targets.

Others are more confidant that the Palestinian parties will announce a limited cease-fire, perhaps one lasting 90 days. "Some sort of cease-fire is sort of agreed upon," says a Western observer who is following the negotiations.

"Within a week," Sakher Habash, a member of Fatah's Central Committee, said on Monday, "I think [Hamas] is going to yield."

The political agreement is perhaps more elusive, since it calls into question the basic strategies of the Palestinian groups. Hamas, for instance, formally rejects the existence of Israel and says historical Palestine must be "liberated" from Israeli control.

Page: 1 | 2