Why Bush's war threats have extra gravitas

The war in Afghanistan has altered the image of "America as wimp." Even though bin Laden and Taliban leader Mullah Omar remain at large, "the US unleashed a devastating war in Afghanistan, toppled the regime, decimated the military infrastructure of Al Qaeda, and installed a friendly government," notes Professor Gerges. "People are saying, 'Iraq is the second phase.' This is why President Bush is taken seriously. They believe he'll do the same in Iraq."

Beyond actions, Bush's persona and verbal style also seem to translate to his advantage in the Middle East. By all accounts, including reporter Bob Woodward's new book "Bush at War," the president does not appear prone to indecision. He does not preside over endless meetings, like some past presidents. Rather, he listens to his options, then decides - more on gut instinct than on any pretension of expertise.

To Bush's critics, his good-versus-evil rhetoric oversimplifies the situation. Even his wife reportedly objected to the swaggering tone of his "wanted, dead or alive" edicts on bin Laden. But by speaking boldly, Bush is sure to be heard.

Even when Bush aims for nuance - such as when he reaches out to Muslims by visiting mosques and refutes statements by US religious-right leaders who disparage Islam - the message can be drowned out by his dominant mantra of force, say Gerges and other Mideast experts.

In the US, there's no doubt that Bush's simple message plays well, even if polls show that most Americans don't want the US to go it alone in a war with Iraq, and want UN approval of an invasion.

"His Manichean, black-and-white, view of the world is very serviceable for a politician, because by putting himself on the side of moral good, that's where most of the country will be," says presidential historian Robert Dallek.

So far in Iraq, Bush has won the return of weapons inspectors and a 12,000 page declaration that purports to lay out the Iraqi weapons programs. It's forced President Hussein to launch a charm offensive to deter possible war.

Yet some observers say that the president's 'good-versus-evil' approach to the Iraq situation has probably contributed to a growing hatred of the US in Muslim countries. The road from here, for Bush, is paved with potential pitfalls. How will Bush decide when and if to go to war with Iraq, especially if there's no obvious trigger? If a war with Iraq goes badly, his persona of competent decisiveness in foreign policy could evaporate.

But in war politics, Bill Clinton seems to know as well as anyone that salesmanship can matter more than policy. In a speech this month, he implored Democrats twice to remember that "when people are insecure, they'd rather have somebody who's strong and wrong than somebody who's weak and right."

Clinton contradicted Bush's emphasis on Iraq, calling Al Qaeda a greater threat to US security. But he didn't fault Bush for an ability to project strength.

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