Election stirs up politics in tranquil Hawaii

That complicates matters for candidates because of the sheer diverse spectrum of political microclimates in the archipelago, ranging from conservative bastions such as Kihei, Maui, to liberal haunts such as Hanalei, Kauai. Furthermore, Hawaii's political makeup is undergoing significant shifts.

"There are very strong signs that demographically the strengths of the Republican party in Hawaii are growing stronger and the strengths of the Democratic Party are growing weaker," says Mr. Boylan.

The analyst points to an influx of wealthy Caucasian retirees and the rapid growth of big-box fundamentalist church congregations in the islands as the reason for the tilt toward the right. Plus, the shrinking population of Americans of Japanese Ancestry (AJAs) in Hawaii is depriving Democrats of one of their staunchest bases. Even union voting for Democrats has eroded in recent elections. "As the unions become more white collar they are less easy to deliver," says Boylan.

Demoralized after their inability to put a Democrat in the governor's chair, the state's unions will probably make a poor turnout on Saturday.

For their part, Hawaii Democrats remain upbeat. Candidate Ed Case, the brother of AOL chairman Steve Case, won the special election in November to occupy Mink's vacant seat for five weeks. He continues to run a strong campaign as he competes not only against Republicans, but also against several Democratic state legislators and Mink's husband, John.

One of the challenges facing the leading candidates is a lack of funds to get the message out. "I can't imagine there is a lot of political money out there left over after the gubernatorial election last Nov. 5," opines Boylan. The four front-runners have managed a handful of television spots but with sparse coffers the advertising blitz has been anything but.

Some smaller candidates hope that, even without the benefit of a massive campaign, their participation in the race will lead to public debate of their ideas.

"I hope to get attention. I am more of a philosophical candidate than anything else," says Jeff Mallan, a Kauai Libertarian and perennial candidate, taking the interview from the comfort of his living room home in Kapaa. Mr. Mallan garnered 33 votes out of a statewide total of 46,216 in the Nov. 30 special congressional election to temporarily fill Mink's seat.

While no one begrudges the right of longshots such as Mallan to take part in the election, many fear that the traffic jam on the ballot will confuse the electorate.

John Marks, an accountant in the beachside town of Kailua on the most populous island of Oahu, knows who he is going to vote for. But he fears many of his friends - who have not followed the election as avidly - might get lost in the booth. "I am not sure they all understand what will be on the ballot. If they don't specifically know who they are going to vote for in advance, it might be pretty hard to tell who is who," says Mr. Marks.

Few expect any of the lesser candidates to win more than a thousand votes. But collectively they could siphon off enough at the margin to undermine a victory for one of the front-runners. That factor, plus an expected low voter turnout could prove an opening for the surging Republican Party in this historically Democratic state.

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