Turkey weighs role in an Iraq war

Implicit in this concern is that Kurds will use war and any refugee crisis to sneak into Turkey some 5,000 guerrillas of the PKK (Kurdistan Worker's Party) - considered terrorists by Turkey. "They worry that if there is a war, there will be huge refugee streams, and those terrorists will use that stream to work their way into Turkey," the diplomat adds.

The 1999 capture of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, now serving a life sentence, led many Turkish Kurds to drop their militant struggle in favor of a push for more civil rights. That drive has been helped by Turkey's bid to join the European Union, which wants to see a better human rights record. Among other reforms, just three weeks ago Turkey lifted the state of emergency in this area, in place since the mid-1980s.

But the Turkish establishment still worries that war could cause Iraq to disintegrate. Turks fear that even a largely Kurdish state as part of an Iraqi federation - a preferred scenario - might rekindle Kurdish nationalism. Many Kurds are concerned that the war can only cause setbacks in their efforts to show they want to live as Kurdish citizens of Turkey.

"We do want to bring down Saddam. He's a murderer and a dictator and has killed thousands of Kurdish people," says Resul Sadak, DEHAP leader in the city of Sirnak. But, he adds, "If there is war, the Turkish authorities will put more pressure on us again. We don't want to separate from Turkey, we want to live here with our democratic rights and our Kurdish identity."

Turkey finds itself in a particularly difficult position. It values its alliance with the US. But it is still reeling from an economic crisis and can only see additional drains from a war: the disruption of its oil imports from Iraq and a rise in oil prices, and the potential costs of sheltering refugees or hosting US soldiers. "In the Gulf War, we were compensated for less than 10 percent of our losses," says Deniz Gokce, an economist in Istanbul. "Forty percent of Turkish exports were to that region," he says.

The country's new government, led by a party with Islamist roots, also has constituents to think about. A Muslim Turkey helping the US attack a Muslim country does not sit well with many Turks - and Muslim neighbors. Prime Minister Abdullah Gul was reported yesterday to be planning a peace mission to several countries - Jordan, Egypt, Syria, perhaps Iran. Turkey's conservative parliament speaker, Bulent Arinc, says the issue should be debated in a full session. "Many people are against Turkey helping the military operation. We will attract the hostility of Arab countries and increase the likelihood of terrorism against Turkey," says Ilter Turkmen, a former foreign minister. "An attack on Iraq will create more problems than it solves. But sometimes, you have to go along with the mistakes of your allies."

In Cizre, a commander declines to comment as foreign reporters ask about reports that Turkish troops and tanks moved through here last week toward Iraq. "Yes, we're nervous because it's not our problem. It's not our war. The problem is between two other countries."

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