As GOP ponders Lott's fate, contenders surface

As Senate Republican leader Trent Lott hunkers down to salvage a job he once described as "herding cats," GOP colleagues are already taking measure of those likely - or willing - to succeed him.

If voted out of office when the GOP caucus meets on Jan. 6, Senator Lott would be the first majority leader ever removed by his own party. Coups to oust any party leader are rare events on Capitol Hill, and usually intensely private. They're typically fought over internal party politics - a bitter rivalry, failure to communicate or accommodate, vaunted ambition.

There was no trace of plots - or even a willing rival - when Republicans voted unanimously last month to keep Mississippi's junior senator in the top leadership spot. And for more than a week after Lott's fateful comment that appeared to support segregation, those members who spoke out did so in support of their embattled leader.

But the growing firestorm of protest, despite yet another apology by Lott Monday night on Black Entertainment TV, has swiftly changed that calculus. After one GOP senator broke ranks Sunday, the caucus quickly scheduled a meeting to reconsider its choice of leader. The forum is set for high noon one day before the new Congress convenes on Jan. 7 - but some insiders say the decision could come earlier.

Even before the current crisis, many caucus members were unhappy with aspects of Lott's leadership, especially what some saw as a record of giving too much away to Democratic leader Tom Daschle. Conservatives outside Congress complained that Lott thought too much about Mississippi and not enough about national leadership. He also rarely helped outside groups raise funds.

In the past, Lott has been protected by a paucity of rivals who wanted the job, and his own ability to keep track of the wants and needs of his caucus. But what's driving this coup is not internal Senate politics. It's the perception, widely shared by Republican groups outside Congress, that Lott's remarks have damaged the party and could derail President Bush's legislative agenda, even his reelection prospects.

"What will go on between now and January 6 - more than [in] other leadership cases - is going to be a lot of attention to polls," says John Pitney, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College in Claremont, Calif.

In 1997, he says, "the abortive coup against [House Speaker Newt] Gingrich reflected dissatisfaction with the way he was handling House business. Here, the driving force is external. This is playing out very much in public, and Lott will have to defend himself in public."

Not only Lott's record, but the records of likely replacements, will be under intense scrutiny, especially on race-related issues.

Here are the names that come up most frequently as prospects to replace Lott:

• Sen. Don Nickles of Oklahoma. On Sunday, the outgoing Republican whip was the first to publicly call for a meeting on whether Lott should continue as leader.

That could hurt him, insiders say. "When you draw the sword, you're likely to fall on it," says Mr. Pitney.

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