Iraqi exiles want US in - then out
More than 300 opposition leaders met this weekend in London to plan for a future without Saddam Hussein.
The Iraqi opposition leaders who gathered in London this weekend broadly agree on two things. Saddam Hussein must go. And the US, should its forces topple the Iraqi president, must rapidly follow him out.
The US is funding the Iraqi opposition, has worked to bring the fractious exiles together, and may be the main engine of Mr. Hussein's downfall. But opposition leaders dread the prospect of a lingering US presence in what they call a liberated Iraq.
"We don't want a break in sovereignty in Iraq to be filled by non-Iraqis," says Ahmed Chalabi, an Iraqi businessman who is president in waiting in the eyes of his supporters. "Even for a day," he adds.
US officials, meanwhile, have spoken of the potential need for a sustained presence in the country - perhaps even a military governor - until a new Iraqi leadership can assume power.
The London gathering of more than 300 delegates from a variety of parties and factions is the most significant meeting of Hussein's Iraqi opponents in a decade. A final statement expected Monday will likely emphasize their desire to create a democratic, pluralistic, federal government - the likes of which has never existed in the Middle East's Arab states.
But the delegates are also expected to name a high-level committee that will act as a liaison with the US and may form the basis of a future government. One working paper at the conference refers to this group as a "nucleus transitional authority."
The US has cautioned the delegates against creating any sort of provisional government or a government in exile, which the US sees as premature. Zalmay Khalilzad, President Bush's envoy to both the emerging Afghan government and to the Iraqi opposition, told delegates this weekend "to be prudent, don't overreach, and to be as representative as they can," according to a US official here who spoke on condition of anonymity.
US officials are said to fear that a government-in-waiting might complicate the scene should members of Hussein's military seize power before or during a US-led military effort to overthrow the dictator. This coup scenario - while undemocratic - seems tidier in the short term than the prospect of assembling a democratic leadership in a country that has known only authoritarian rulers or foreign-imposed monarchs in its 70 years as a modern state.
Also, many of the opposition figures are notoriously unpopular in the country to which they aspire to return. Chalabi, a banker turned politician, has cultivated strong ties with the US government, but his own people may not be as fond of him. Following a US invasion, says Mousa al-Hussaini, an Iraqi exile in London who opposes American intervention and who stayed away from the weekend conference, Chalabi could rule for "maybe three or four days.... He can't move in the cities of Iraq - people will kill him with their hands."
The US also wants to see which Iraqis from inside the country might emerge as potential leaders, something that a prepackaged provisional government might stifle. Chalabi, for one, disparages this prospect. "Anyone who is active politically [against Hussein] is either in exile or dead," he asserts.
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