Next moves for US on Iraq weapons list

Rather than the Iraqi declaration triggering a "showdown," Mr. Cirincione believes the information sets up a round of delicate technical, intelligence, and diplomatic work "that will take weeks to play out."

That may suit the White House fine, since all the elements of the American military buildup in the region are not in place for a possible war, military experts say. But what would constitute a clear defeat for the US would be Iraqi success at using its declaration to cover up its weapons programs. After having declared repeatedly it knows Iraq still has such programs, the US now must provide proof or risk losing the opportunity to finally deal with a regime most of the world agrees constitutes a serious threat.

"After what we've been saying, the rest of the world is going to ask, 'Where's the beef?' and will want something convincing," says Rear Admiral (Ret.) Stephen Baker of the Center for Defense Information here.

The US faces the difficult task of deciding how to reveal the information it has, information that experts in and out of government say comes at least in part from either defectors or is gleaned from sources inside Iraq.

The issue is causing a not-so-private tug-of-war between the Bush administration and the UN inspections team. Divulging such information is delicate because it could threaten individuals whom the Iraqi regime could surmise are the only likely sources, and it could tip off the Iraqi regime to destroy evidence before inspectors have a chance to get to it.

How the US and Iraq handle any forthcoming information could also cause Iraqis with information, like scientists, to clam up rather than risk their lives. That is why the US is insisting that inspectors take advantage of a provision in the UN resolution that calls for removing key information holders - and their families - from the country for debriefing. Last week Bush's national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, met with Hans Blix, who heads the UN inspection effort, to press the US position.

But Mr. Blix responded by calling on the US to turn over whatever information it has. Most analysts believe the US, having bought into the UN process, will have to do just that. "Sure it's a risk, but we're going to have to take that risk and turn over what we have," says Mr. Korb, now an analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. "Otherwise, we're never going to have much support from the international community for going after Saddam."

The US may be gleaning some of its intelligence from special operations forces already in Iraq. "We have a list of 10,000 nuclear scientists, chemical engineers, and technicians inside Iraq," says Admiral Baker. "I assume we've got some information from someone. But the question is how do we use it?"

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