One last Senate campaign - gumbo style

As Republican donors stream through the lobby of the swank Fairmont hotel - where Christmas decorations have transformed the ceiling into a canopy of cotton "snow" - the sense of significance is palpable.

It was here that legendary populist Huey Long headquartered his campaign back in 1928, mapping out a winning coalition of small farmers and workers that would propel him into the governor's seat and shape Louisiana politics for decades to come.

Now, as the site of a high-profile campaign stop by President Bush, the Fairmont may play a key role in another transforming election: one that could send a Republican to the Senate from Louisiana for the first time since the days of Reconstruction.

A GOP win in Saturday's election would also represent a final step in a steady Republican march across the Deep South that started decades ago and gained momentum this fall in states such as Georgia, South Carolina, Texas, and Alabama.

For most of the nation, of course, Campaign 2002 ended on Nov 7. But Louisiana has always prided itself on being different when it comes to politics. Candidates vie in an open primary on Election Day, with the top two entering a runoff if no one gets a majority.

This year, Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu failed to win 50 percent of the vote, so for the past month she has waged a brutal overtime matchup against GOP State Elections Commissioner Suzanne Haik Terrell. Senator Landrieu began the runoff with a commanding lead, but recent polls show a dead heat.

The outcome won't affect control of the Senate, since Republicans already have at least a one-seat majority. But with such close margins, every Senate seat counts, and both parties are fighting hard for this final seat. So much money has poured into the state that locals have taken to joking about the "second Louisiana Purchase."

The campaign is compelling, too, simply as "the election after the elections" - in this case a test of the GOP's momentum, says Susan Howell, a political scientist at the University of New Orleans.

In many ways, this race has been directly shaped by what happened Nov. 7 - when Republicans took control of the Senate and gained additional seats in the House. Starting Nov. 8, Senator Landrieu was suddenly running as a member of the minority party. And nationally, momentum shifted even further to the GOP.

"There is this wave of Republican enthusiasm right now, not just in Louisiana, but across America - and Terrell is riding this wave," says Ms. Howell.

A Republican win would further validate the party's electoral gains and add to Mr. Bush's reputation as a formidable campaigner. A Landrieu victory could make the other midterm results seem a little less decisive, and give Democrats a much-needed boost.

Wedged among Republican strongholds such as Texas and Mississippi, Louisiana is one of the last Southern states where the majority of voters are still registered Democrats - a lingering vestige of Huey Long era populism. But the Republican Party has been gaining steady ground here, following the pattern of other Southern states, as more and more conservative whites shift their allegiance. Bill Clinton carried Louisiana in 1996, but Al Gore lost it in 2000.

Republicans here express a growing excitement - about the race, and about the party's future. "The Republican Party is developing here," asserts Michael Toso, a New Orleans real estate appraiser who has come to the Fairmont to see Bush.

YET party affiliation still tends to be relatively loose, and is often secondary to other voter concerns, say analysts. With poverty high here, victory often depends less on ideology than on practical appeals and strong personality. "Candidates running in populist states like Louisiana need to do two things," says Jim Farwell, a Republican consultant based in New Orleans, who was Newt Gingrich's media strategist. "First, they need to show that they have the power and savvy to deliver for their state. Second, they need to show strength of character in public office. The South is a place that likes to elect titans."

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