In Iran, a 'second revolution' gathers steam

Iranians gave Mr. Khatami nearly 80 percent of the popular vote and elected a proreform parliament in three elections since 1997. But those landslides have not convinced conservatives to loosen their grip. Two key bills now before parliament seek to limit their power. But even if passed, the bills must be approved by the same authorities they are meant to limit.

Their passage "will be the greatest service done to Islam, and to the survival of the [Islamic] system," says Ayatollah Tabrizi. If the bills are vetoed, "reformists may reconsider their behavior, in a lawful way ... and the legitimacy and credibility of the system will be questioned.

Meanwhile, the rhetoric is escalating. A week ago, supreme leader Khamenei ordered a halt to students demonstrating in support of a university professor facing a death sentence for insulting Islam. Launching National Basiji Week this past Sunday, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the powerful former president, said that the procleric militants must prevent "Satan's cavalry and infantry" from causing insecurity.

The Basiji provoked several low-key clashes in recent weeks with students, who chanted "Death to the Taliban, in Kabul and Tehran," and openly questioned the rule of Mr. Khamenei's office of Velayat-e-faqih. Top reform leaders on Sunday warned students to avoid a violent confrontation, to prevent a "state of emergency."

Two events this year frame the debate in Iran. The first was President Bush's labeling of Iran as part of an "axis of evil." The second was the resignation of a senior prayer leader in Isfahan in July and the devastating accusations he made in an open letter.

"When I remember the promises and pledges of the revolution, I tremble like a willow thinking of my faith," wrote Ayatollah Jaluddin Taheri, a long-venerated cleric who has since been placed under house arrest.

Ayatollah Taheri struck at the ruling clerics as corrupt hypocrites and a "gang of shroud-wearers," whose "deviations" were undermining Islamic rule. He accused Khamenei of being propped up by "louts and fascists, who sharpen the teeth of the crocodile of power."

While the volatile drama plays itself out enthusiasm for icons of the revolution is flagging. Adjacent to the martyrs' cemetery is the gold-domed shrine to the leader of the revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, revered here as the "Imam of the Age."

Normally, there's standing room only in the cavernous complex. But on the first Friday of the holy month of Ramadan in early November - an especially holy day for religious obeisance - just a few worshipers were seen.

The sparse turnout shocks analysts in Tehran, because of what it says about the crisis in the hardline camp. "This means that Khatami ... has been able to change many things in Iran, even though you can't see them clearly," says an Iranian analyst.

"The basic problem since Khatami was first elected, is that if you take the reform process to its logical end, you get regime change," says a European diplomat in Tehran. "The big question is: Are we closer to an open fight, where 80 percent of the people will tell the rest that they are a minority?"

But the influence of that minority remains large. "It doesn't take many," says an Iranian academic, who asked not to be named. "In Tehran, if you have 10,000 people - and they have that number - that can stop everything."

Page: 1 | 2