As race ends, still a 50-50 nation

At the culmination of a campaign cycle marked by some of the most cataclysmic events in US history – and more shifts in momentum than the stock market – Democrats and Republicans head into Tuesday's elections at essentially the same position from which they began: tied.

The latest polls show that Republicans are likely to maintain or slightly increase their slim six-seat lead in the US House of Representatives – a rarity for the party holding the presidency in midterm elections. Democrats, for their part, are likely to pick up a handful of governorships, bringing control of the states even closer to parity. The Senate, where Democrats have a one-seat margin, remains too close to call – but analysts say whichever party wins, it's unlikely to be by more than a seat or two.

The likely persistence of the 50-50 divide that emerged in the 2000 election is in some ways remarkable considering the transforming events that have taken place over the past two years – including the attacks of Sept. 11, a series of major corporate scandals, the economic downturn, and the debate over war with Iraq.

Nor has the campaign lacked dramatic storylines: Republicans have had to contend with the retirement of conservative icons such as Jesse Helms and Strom Thurmond, while Democrats had last-minute replacements of New Jersey Sen. Robert Torricelli, whose candidacy was sunk by ethical problems, and Minnesota Sen. Paul Wellstone, who died in a plane crash. Yet after a record $1 billion spent by both sides, analysts say that perhaps what's most unusual about Campaign 2002 is just how close the two parties remain in the end.

"It's been like a roller coaster ride," says political analyst Stuart Rothenberg. "We've had these gyrations and ups and downs and apparent shifts – and at the end of the day, we wound up where we began."

TO some extent, because the margins were so narrowly divided to begin with, both sides have largely played it safe, opting to protect the seats they had while going after just enough additional seats to gain control. This has largely meant eschewing broad ideological contrasts and grand themes in favor of personal differences and local issues.

"This is not [an election] about parties, this is not about ideology, this is not about one or two overriding issues driving the voters," says Mr. Rothenberg. "It's a race-by-race contest."

But it's also true that the major issues dominating this campaign cycle – national security and the economy – have worked essentially to cancel each other out. Typically, a weak economy should benefit the party out of power – in this case, the Democrats – since voters tend to blame the president for pocketbook concerns. Given that the president's party almost always loses seats in midterm elections anyway, Republicans by most measures ought to be heading for big losses.

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