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Staying ahead of the rising tide of terror



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By Ronald S. Kraybill / October 29, 2002

HARRISONBURG, VA.

It's time to move past "do we or don't we shellac Saddam" to the stuff burning holes in our hearts.

Let's name what we're really after. Isn't it security, to know that when we say goodbye to our families in the morning we'll live to say hello again over the dinner table at night?

So let's talk about security, and look at more than today's headlines when we do. Then we'd have a few clues about how to handle the current "terror of the decade," who turns out to be the same guy we supported in the 1980s when he was gassing the Iranians, our terror of another decade.

Let's start with the bad news, which unfortunately is about as bad as it gets. Anybody and his brother can get super-killer weapons, and it's going to get worse. In my youth, the bar of technology for producing those weapons was so high that only a handful of determined nations could acquire them. But technology and unfettered arms merchants drop the bar year by year, so low that today, any determined individual or group can acquire automatic weapons, surface-to-air missiles, and bombs.

The time lag from state monopoly to mass availability? Maybe two human generations.

For a peek at what our children and grandchildren will confront in their backyards tomorrow, take a look at what's in the arsenals and labs of nations today. What we see there ought to stop us in our tracks: weapons that give one person the power to destroy millions: nuclear bombs in a suitcase; chemical and biological devastation in a can.

We can't be more than a few decades from a time when someone will be capable of splicing, say, the HIV virus into the common cold virus. The unthinkable is rapidly nearing: the day when weapons of large-scale destruction will be accessible to thousands.

Will our grandchildren survive? We could greatly assist their chances if we updated our notions of security. Current understandings rest security on military strength. By possessing weapons capable of devastating any attacker, we hope to deter aggression. History makes clear that deterrence is an unreliable defense. We've been victims of attack by groups that should have been deterred and weren't. But for such occasions we trust in superior strength to limit damage and defeat the undeterred.

Deterrence and superior force worked pretty well, until science caught up with us a few decades ago. In my grandparents' youth, travel was hard, and crude technology limited the killing power of weapons. These natural limits created a security barrier so high that serious threats to America were few. But those days are gone. People now travel easily and in large numbers. Worse, weapons travel the globe unaccompanied – in missiles, airplanes, shipping containers, the mail, and even in rays of energy. Perhaps worst, weapons are cheap and widely accessible. Today, a few dozen determined individuals scattered around the globe can wound us so badly that we have a national crisis. It's like waking up to see that a wall 10 feet thick and 12 feet tall got lopped off at 5 feet.

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