A search for motives in sniper shootings

Legions of investigators are combing the country, as well as the Caribbean isles, to discover what may have led John Allen Muhammad and John Lee Malvo to allegedly kill 10 people and wound three others in one of the nation's most notorious shooting sprees.

What is emerging so far is a dark narrative of two troubled lives – of failed marriages and businesses, of a youth's slavish devotion to a charming but malevolent faux father, of lives lived small and schemes that were, seemingly, grandiose.

Still, whether the sniper shootings were the outgrowth of a disturbed personality, or some philosophical pique, or even part of a larger international conspiracy remains uncertain. Were the suspects sympathetic with Al Qaeda terrorists bent on anti-American treachery? Were they possibly associated with militant anti-American groups at home?

More deeply, is it even possible to separate terrorism from "regular" criminality at a time when indiscriminate rifle fire or targeted anthrax attacks causes widespread fear? And perhaps the most frightening question: In the "new normal" atmosphere following last year's 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States, will others – either for philosophical reasons or because they are mentally disturbed – be emboldened to become lone terrorists?

"Certainly at the very least it can influence some individuals who already are inclined to maybe favor a certain ideology, like maybe anti-Americanism," says Candice Skrapec, professor of criminology at California State University in Fresno.

"The fuel takes the form of essentially affirming their own feelings of anger and their need to retaliate, and also maybe giving them ... specific direction about how to do that," says Dr. Skrapec, who has studied serial killers. "Indeed, if your anti-American sentiments or your antiauthority sentiments are affirmed by the actions of another, that can give you the impetus or the courage to proceed with your own campaign because you feel much more justified."

While intelligence and law-enforcement officials are not ready to predict that more criminal/terrorist actions are in store as a result of 9/11 and its aftermath, they would not be surprised if that were the case.

"I think it's a psychological and historical given than when times are uncertain, or when the fabric of society and civilization are perceived as fraying, acts of violence, terror, and lawlessness become much more common," says Stacie Dotson, a senior analyst with Hawkeye Systems, a defense contractor in Alexandria, Va., specializing in counterterrorism.

"I do not think the true measure has yet been taken of the psychological impact of 9/11," says Ms. Dotson, a lawyer who has worked in naval intelligence and criminal investigations. "Those of us who have been in the military, or in law enforcement, or otherwise on the front lines of life where bad things happen, probably were not as surprised and shocked as the rest of the country."

Although Mr. Muhammad had converted to Islam some years ago, and more recently changed his name to reflect that, there is no evidence so far to connect him to any radical Islamic group – even though witnesses have said he expressed support for the Middle Eastern terrorists who attacked American targets last year.

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