Palestinian statehood fades

Critics add that adhering to the "road map" would not require great political will on Sharon's part. It only calls for the dismantling of settlement outposts built while he has been in office and for a freeze to last until Palestinian elections next year.

Others suggest that the road map is toothless. "Is there any way to see if Israel is violating the freeze and what kind of punitive action will the US take if Israel is found in violation?" asks Michael Terazi, a lawyer with the Negotiation Affairs Department of the Palestinian Liberation Organization.

There have been scuffles between settlers and soldiers who dismantled some small outposts in the past week, but overall, settlements have averaged a 5.6 percent annual population growth rate since Sharon took office, says Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics.

A report recently issued by Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, warns that the establishment of a viable, independent and democratic Palestinian state by 2005 is seriously threatened.

The report uses maps to make its point that the construction of settlements, a massive separation barrier between Israel and the territories, and roads in and around Jerusalem are strangling the development of a Palestinian state.

"The West Bank will be completely severed into two noncontiguous parts – north and south," the report says. "Palestinians will be effectively denied the possibility of any form of sovereignty and control over East Jerusalem."

Compounding matters is the death of mutual trust. Polls show most Palestinians don't think this conflict can be solved peacefully and that support for militant Islamic parties, which advocate Israel's destruction, is growing.

Among Israelis, more people are talking about the concept of "transfer," literally moving Palestinians to another country. At the grassroots level, bumper stickers around Jerusalem urge people to "Deport the [expletives]."

Among the intelligentsia, prominent historian Benny Morris writes about the historical "logic of transfer," while former leftwing stalwarts like author A.B. Yehoshua now espouse the idea.

Against this background, the Abu Mazen report suggests Palestinians must "consider other options, including a one-state framework."

"It's the only option," says Mr. Terazi. "So much of the West Bank has been annexed that for practical purposes it's silly to talk about a Palestinian state. I have to tell people that the so-called state Israel wants to give you is no more than a series of reservations with limited water resources. Most Palestinians react the way the leadership does, 'Wow. It's all over. We don't want this, but what are we going to do?' " This kind of talk, to Israeli ears, is code for a demographic time bomb.

"They simply prefer to bide their time under Israeli rule while settlements spread throughout the West Bank and the total Palestinian population comes to outnumber Israelis, before they begin a campaign against Israeli "apartheid" and simply demand 'one man, one vote,' " writes Yossi Alpher, former head of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv. The answer, he suggests, is unilateral separation while there is still time.

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