S. America's era of 'civil coups'

Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo made headlines throughout Latin America last week when he expressed concern about the future of his Venezuelan counterpart, Hugo Chávez.

Public demonstrations calling for the embattled leader's resignation seem almost a daily occurrence in Venezuela, where the economy has foundered and unemployment has soared. Monday, businesses stayed closed as part of the third general strike this year.

But Mr. Toledo's sentiments may not have been exactly selfless. If Mr. Chávez falls, Toledo might be forgiven for worrying that he's next to go.

Minuscule approval ratings, persistent unemployment, and a long-running paternity claim against Peru's head of state – which ended only last Friday when Toledo finally recognized a 14-year-old as his daughter – have threatened to derail his 15-month-old tenure in office.

"I am concerned that institutional rule will be broken," Toledo told El Nuevo Herald, referring to a possible ouster of Chávez. "If one country falls, it can drag others with it." Toledo worried that Venezuela might "set a precedent through which presidents are removed even if they've been elected."

The failure of presidents to fulfill their term in office is nothing new to Latin America. In previous decades, an ineffective and discredited señor presidente being ousted by a generalísmo in dark glasses seemed the archetype of the region's turbulent politics. These days, however, presidential job security is threatened less by brawny military officers than by the strength of domestic public opinion.

"There is an impatience on the part of Latin American citizens that we haven't seen in a while," says Miguel Díaz, director of the South America project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "It isn't that they are repudiating market economics or democracy, but they are simply repudiating bad leadership."

Indeed, although outright military coups in the region are now rare, several presidents have had to pack their bags early in recent years.

Ecuador dispatched the deeply unpopular presidents Abdala Bucarám and Jamil Mahuad in 1997 and 2000, respectively, following widespread protests. Paraguayan President Raúl Cubas resigned in March 1999 amid impeachment proceedings, while President Alberto Fujimori of Peru fled to Japan in late 2000 amid an onslaught of corruption scandals; the congress quickly declared him "morally unfit" to govern. And in Argentina, the deepening economic crisis and pressure from legislators compelled President Fernando de la Rúa to step down in December 2001.

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