Iraqis bracing for war's aftermath

Jawad's family is a typical case: A school notebook lists material needed by her hospitalized 7-year-old son, Zein al-Abidine, which Jawad can't afford. From the southern city of Najaf, she has come to Baghdad for Zein's treatment.

Difficult as her life may be in peacetime, it could become critically complicated if US bombing starts, and stretches from the city of Kirkuk in the north, to Basra in the south.

"They can't absorb any more problems – nobody is equipped on the humanitarian front," says Marcus Dolder, head of the Iraq delegation of the International Committee of the Red Cross. His experience stretches from the Gulf War to Chechnya, Bosnia, Rwanda and two years in Afghanistan before coming to Iraq. "The effects of war will be quick and very dramatic on these people."

Unlike in Afghanistan, where there has never been any infrastructure to speak of, Iraq is vulnerable to power failure. An oil-rich country, the regime of Saddam Hussein – before smothering his nation in the Iran-Iraq war – invested heavily in state-of-the-art services like hospitals, water treatment and sewage facilities the 1970s and early 1980s.

Potable water is a "crucial first priority," Mr. Dolder says, in a country that expends half a million tons of sewage into the waterways daily. But while agencies are working out plans for mobile filtering systems and tanker distribution, another danger is the sewer system.

Because of vulnerable pumping stations and the erratic pressure in water mains – which means that leaking pipes can suck in pollutants, and deliver sewage to the tap – agencies are concerned about health problems.

Even in peacetime, UN figures show that the average Iraqi child has 15 cases of diarrhea a year. In Iraq's sticky and sweltering climate, preventing epidemics is key. The ICRC is organizing water tankers and generators, and importing wound-treatment kits for thousands of people.

"The hospitals have the ability to maintain activities for two weeks – after that it is finished," says Vincent Hubin, the country director for the French agency Premiere Urgence. His staff are rushing to restore blood banks and supply hospital bedding and other needs.

"We are pushing every day to finish," Mr. Hubin says. The government is stocking up fuel, generators, and "giving out maximum medical supplies in order to keep the hospitals alive."

While issuing the warning, the agencies are also asking for funds for their preparations. "All donors will give money once bombs start to fall," says Hubin. "The problem for all [agencies], is that we have clear plans, but not a penny for disaster preparedness."

Many Iraqis say they remember the Gulf War experience, when a 42-day bombing campaign was followed by a 100-hour US-led ground attack, and anti-government uprisings.

"It was very difficult – we had to operate by candle light," recalls Dr. Murtada Hassan, the chief hematologist at the Mansur Hospital in Baghdad. "Many things were damaged, like vaccines and blood supplies, because the temperature in Iraq is hot, even in the winter."

While he is pleased that generators are being furnished for his hospital, he says: "Even the generators can't work forever, because the gas and benzine will be finished."

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