In N.J. Senate race, 'swing' county is a key

Almost every state has a county that swings. It votes Republican one election; Democrat the next. And, while winning that county doesn't guarantee victory, it may be a good indication of whether a candidate has sufficiently broad appeal to win a state-wide battle.

Welcome to Monmouth County, which fits that bill in the Garden State.

The county, home to many independent voters, is a window on one of the tightest and most important races in the nation: the battle for Sen. Robert Torricelli's seat.

To win in New Jersey – and quite possibly have an impact on the complexion of the US Senate – Republican challenger Doug Forrester and former Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg will have to win many of these votes. And, so far, it appears neither one of them has made much of an impression.

As he sips a cup of coffee at No Joe's Café, Fred Cooley, a writer and sports marketer, says he has no idea whom he's going to vote for. He does not know what Mr. Forrester stands for and he didn't think Mr. Lautenberg did a good job when he represented the state for 18 years. "I'm an independent, and right now neither party has won my vote," he says.

This may be one of the reasons why early polls show the race to be very tight.

This week, a Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers poll found Mr. Lautenberg leading Forrester among potential voters but dead even among likely voters. Only two weeks ago, the same poll found Forrester held a 13-point lead over Mr. Torricelli. Because he was so far behind in the polls, Torricelli dropped out of the race. After court challenges that went as far as the US Supreme Court, Lautenberg replaced Torricelli on the ballot.

Many of those who planned to vote for Forrester are really voting against Torricelli, who was severely chastised by the US Senate for accepting gifts from a donor in return for help with a business problem. That's true of Joy Diamond, a real estate agent from nearby Rumson. As she thumbs through some old photos at Dorn's Photo Shop, she says, "I'm not so sure what Forrester represents."

Ms. Diamond is not alone. New Jersey political experts believe Forrester needs to define himself – especially in swing counties such as Monmouth, an affluent, highly educated county that encompasses a diverse population ranging from commuting businessmen to clam diggers. This group has traditionally been concerned about taxes, schools, the environment, and safety. "Our independent voters want low taxes and excellent government services," says David Rebovich, managing director of the Rider Institute for New Jersey Politics.

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