Jordan caught between US and Iraq

The US waived $700 million in debt and boosted annual support in 1997 to $150 million in economic and $75 million in military aid. Congress added a further $300 million in assistance in 1999-2000, and has raised it a further $300 million for 2003.

"Jordan has learned the hard way from the previous war, and this time, his majesty believes Jordan should not be exposed to another bitter experience," says Jawad Anani, a former chief of King Hussein's court, and former foreign minister. Mr. Anani remembers a call 3 a.m. in late 1997 from a prominent US State Department official, who read him a message that the US "did not view happily" an [inaccurate] report that the King would offer a US-Iraq reconciliation plan.

"I'm sure his majesty finds it easy to deal with the Americans," Anani says. "His plans to modernize Jordan and create substantial growth hinge not only on US aid, but on their technology and investment. It's a real dependence that will curtail degrees of freedom."

Iraq has made clear that it will challenge any Arab nation that backs US plans, and with some 400,000 Iraqis now living in Jordan – making up nearly one tenth of the population – the royal court knows that Baghdad can move to undermine the monarchy.

In 1998, riots in the cities of Karak and Maan, considered to be part of the backbone of the Hashemite monarchy's support, were fueled in part by pro-Iraqi elements – and came as the US was gearing up to bomb Iraq. Wielding pick-axs, protesters flailed against the bullet-proof glass windows of armored police vehicles.

Jordanian sources say the Iraqi embassy in Amman has been offering cash to pro-Iraq groups and professional organizations, to help win their support.

"The timing on when you turn your back on Iraq is very important," says a long-time Jordan analyst, who asked not to be named. "Jordan must choose between the US and Iraq, but it must balance that in a way that will not anger Saddam too early. If Saddam survives, Jordan will pay the price."

Making tough choices, though, is what Washington's "with-us-or-against-us" policy is forcing Jordan to do.

"Jordanians understand that Jordan's interests go beyond a brotherly affection for Iraq," says a Western diplomat. At the same time, Jordanians "deeply disapprove" of Israel's policies against the Palestinians – which they pin to Israel's staunch supporter, the US, he says.

Still, there has been a change in tone, the diplomat says. Worn down by bad news to the point of "anxiety fatigue," people here cherish stability above all else, he says.

Among the scenarios Jordan fears is a large influx of Iraqi refugees. Another unwelcome prospect is a concerted push by Israel – using the Iraq attack as a cover for action, many here suggest – to force hundreds of thousands of Palestinians across the Jordan River and into Jordan.

"Jordanians feed on the uncertainties," says the diplomat. "They would like to be reassured on every front, and they find reassurance very difficult to come by."

Part of the problem is that, for many here, Israel and Iraq are linked. "In Jordan and the Arab world, the US is seen as a bigger enemy than Israel," says Ramzi Khoury, a political analyst and head of a media services group in Amman and Ramallah, in the West Bank.

"If you discuss Saddam Hussein, Jordanians have no respect for his style of dictatorship. But that is not the issue – it is sympathy when Arabs are attacked." The result, says Mr. Khoury, is that the US "is facing unmatched Arab hostility. But they [the Americans] believe that they have paid off client regimes enough to keep control."

Page: 1 | 2