Antiwar voices rise, but with twist

In Italy, where Premier Silvio Berlusconi's vocal support for the US drew harsh criticism from tens of thousands at a demonstration in Rome, the vociferous radical left "is not the only component of this front," says Sergio Romano, a prominent Italian political commentator. "Lots of other people who don't belong are part of it, because they fear this operation has not been sufficiently calculated. There is a lot of diffidence, fear, and hostility, and not much enthusiasm" for a US attack on Iraq.

"The idea of going with the US no matter what is not welcome here," agrees Professor Pavoncello. "Unless there is a clear-cut reason from the UN point of view, an attack would not fly."

The reasons for any attack are key to determining European attitudes, pollsters say. French fears of American hegemony are behind reservations about US policy, says Stéphane Rozès, who heads the CSA polling company. "The basis for French people's rejection of an attack is the feeling that the US would be launching this intervention unilaterally more for its own geo-strategic reasons than because Saddam Hussein is a threat."

The French have not taken to the street, Mr. Rozès suggests, because President Jacques Chirac has judged the public mood perfectly in opposing the US preference for a single UN resolution authorizing force, and insisting on a more cautious approach.

In Germany, Chancellor Gerhard Schröder also judged the public mood accurately. It was his firm opposition to war in Iraq that won him last month's elections by a narrow margin. The German electorate's approval of Mr. Schröder's stand surprised many analysts, who had seen signs that Germans were growing readier to take decisive action abroad.

Now that he has been re-elected, however, Schröder is expected to seek to mend fences with Washington. With a UN resolution mandating the use of military force to compel Iraqi compliance with weapons inspectors, "he'll find a way" to support such action, and to carry the German public with him, Mr. Schlinkert predicts.

Everything hinges on the UN mandate, polls and political analysts say. "The Europeans played a role in modifying the US procedures," persuading Bush to seek a UN resolution rather than acting unilaterally, says Pavoncello, so Europeans are prepared to go along with what the UN Security Council decides.

"A UN vote would make things much easier," adds Romano.

Not that a UN vote would change things for the peace activists. "The UN is not much more than a fig leaf," complains Mr. Burgin. "The American and British governments are preparing for war, and they want war. It will be very difficult to stop it."

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