To Israel, Arafat a necessary evil

Judging from the heaps of rubble that used to be the nerve center of the Palestinian Authority, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat has narrowly escaped the rubbish bin of history.

But endangering Mr. Arafat is one thing. Killing or exiling him in the face of US opposition is another. And replacing him with new leaders is simply not in the cards, according to leading Israeli and Palestinian analysts. In fact, they say, despite Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's talk of reforms, they are the last thing the Israeli leader wants since they could mean territorial concessions and the break-up of his coalition.

They see Mr. Sharon's decision to order an army attack on Arafat's compound precisely at a time when Palestinian reformers were pressing their leader to relinquish power as a clear sign that Sharon is not seeking credible new Palestinian leaders.

"He is looking for quislings, people who do not exist," says Akiva Eldar, a columnist for Ha'aretz daily newspaper. He suggests that there are no potential puppet leaders who would do Israel's bidding. He says the conditions the government is setting for talking to any new leaders, such as crippling Hamas without any Israeli concessions, are impossible to meet.

Sharon told the Jerusalem Post in an interview published Friday that a new leadership would need to take "clear action on the ground" by arresting "all the terrorists from all the organizations," dismantling Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and militias belonging to Arafat's Fatah faction, confiscate all illegal weapons, engage in "serious preventative operations" to prevent terrorism, and end incitement. "If these are not met it will be impossible to advance in a diplomatic process," he said.

The siege of Arafat's offices was ordered after a suicide bombing by Hamas in Tel Aviv killed six people.

Ephraim Inbar, director of the BESA Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv, says that at the moment it is "not easy" to find a Palestinian partner to such an approach. But he says he is convinced Sharon is sincere in hoping for one, noting that the prime minister stressed in the same interview that there is no military solution to the conflict and that he does not envision Israeli troops "staying forever" in Nablus and Hebron.

"Sharon has been very clear that any agreement will be interim and that the Palestinians will get 40 percent of the West Bank, which he could increase. That is what in the cards. This would be a difficult choice for any Palestinian leader, but the circumstances are that they started this war and lost, so that is what they get."

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