Iraq inspections face high hurdles

United Nations weapons inspectors face all but insurmountable problems as they prepare a new mission to hunt down Saddam Hussein's alleged nuclear, chemical, and biological arsenal, according to former inspectors.

The gravest obstacle is that neither of the principal antagonists appears keen that the inspections – whose success is all that could forestall war – should work. Iraq has a long record of seeking to deceive inspectors by concealing its weapons programs; the United States is adamant that its policy is Hussein's removal, not simply his disarmament.

The inspectors are likely to be given new orders by the UN Security Council in a resolution to be presented within the next few days by Britain or the US. The British government is due to release a dossier Tuesday containing evidence of Iraq's biological and chemical arsenal.

In Washington's eyes "inspections were a tool for containment," says Charles Duelfer, former deputy chief of the UN Special Com- mission (UNSCOM) that ran inspections in Iraq between 1991 and 1998. "Now they are a tool for replacement of the regime."

Iraq, while inviting inspectors back, has shown no signs of new honesty in explaining unresolved questions about its biological weapons program in particular. In a speech read to the UN General Assembly last week, Saddam Hussein denied his country has weapons of mass destruction.

Hans Blix, the head of the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), will meet Iraqi officials in Vienna on Sept. 30th to discuss practical arrangements for renewed inspections. The last team of UN inspectors withdrew from Iraq in 1998 after accusing Baghdad of non–cooperation.

More important, however, is whether the Iraqi government intends to resume its past practice of hiding weapons programs until inspectors' detective work reveals them. Iraq announced Saturday it would not allow inspectors unfettered access to presidential compounds.

President Bush made his conditions clear in his recent speech to the UN General Assembly, when he said that "if the Iraqi regime wishes peace, it will immediately and unconditionally forswear, disclose and remove or destroy all weapons of mass destruction, long-range missiles, and related material."

That language echoed the original UN Security Council resolutions in 1991, following Iraq's surrender at the end of the Gulf War. Over the following seven years, as Baghdad repeatedly sidestepped those resolutions, international concern focused more on how far the Iraqi authorities were cooperating with the inspectors than on their failure to disarm.

If UNMOVIC begins work in Iraq, "the proof of the pudding will be in the eating, it's up to Iraq," says Ewen Buchanan, spokesman for the inspection team. "Blix has said that he does not think the Security Council will accept going back to cat–and–mouse games."

"The inspectors need an honest declaration by the Iraqis of what they have now and what they did in the past," says Gary Milhollin, an Iraq expert at the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Disarmament in Washington. "They have never received such a document."

If one is forthcoming now, it would likely take inspectors about a year to verify, says Mr. Milhollin. But "if Iraq doesn't come through, sending inspectors is probably a waste of time," he adds. "If Iraq is still concealing things, the chances of uncovering them are fairly small."

That view is widely shared among former inspectors such as Tim Trevan, who was political adviser to UNSCOM from 1992 to 1995. "I'm very pessimistic," he says. "I think the inspectors will have an impossible task ... if Iraq goes back to the old game of cheat and retreat."

Though some senior US officials deride any inspection regime as worthless, UNSCOM did discover and destroy all Iraq's Scud missiles, its nuclear weapons program, and most of its chemical and biological arms. An independent panel set up in 1999 by the UN Security Council to evaluate the results of inspections found that "the bulk of Iraq's proscribed weapons programs has been eliminated."

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