As US talks up Iraq threat, Gulf states stifle a yawn

But the new readiness to back a UN action should not be confused with the notion that these same Arab countries now fear Iraq, says Charles Heyman, editor of the London-based Jane's World Armies.

"They don't feel that Saddam is a threat to them whatsoever," says Mr. Heyman, who returned last week from a tour of the Arab world. "I couldn't find any Arab anywhere [who] felt Saddam was a personal threat to them. They felt the real threat was a knock-on to any US-led attacks on Iraq. They are also worried about who will replace Saddam and whether it might turn out to be a fundamentalist regime. Basically, what they are saying is, 'better the devil we know than the one we don't.'"

Yet while White House legal council Gordon Grey told the BBC this week that Hussein was threatening the "annihilation of his neighbors," few officials or citizens here say they are endangered by the man the US government has designated as their region's bogeyman.

The US Central Command, which is bolstering its presence in the Gulf, is leading US and Arab cooperative efforts to deal with the threats posed by another major war in the region. Tiny Qatar forms the nexus of its ongoing work.

Qatari Brig. Gen. Hamad Al Hinzab says, however, that the region faces "no great threats" despite rising fears in Washington that Saddam Hussein has bolstered his chemical weapons capabilities and is working to create a nuclear bomb.

Other Gulf officials say privately that they fear Hussein's chemical weapons potential, but only if it is unleashed on them in response to a US-led preemptive strike.

Herb Kelman, who directs the Center for Conflict Resolution at Harvard University, says that the apparent lack of fear in the Arab world doesn't mean that Saddam Hussein's neighbors trust him.

"The evidence that the Arabs are considering is that Saddam is something of a rational actor," says Mr. Kelman. "We see this even now with his decision to allow the weapons inspectors back in. Saddam may be evil, but he is probably not suicidal."

Kelman says that for a peaceful resolution to the tensions in the Gulf, Hussein must be provided with options, like permitting full inspections, rather than just the "regime change" that the Bush administration had been insisting on until recently until the president addressed the United Nations and made no direct mention of it.

Says Mr. El-Kahky, the Egyptian political reporter at the Al-Jazeera cable network: "Saddam can't do anything now and he knows he can't use his chemical weapons. If he does, he will die, too. He wants to cling to power and that is exactly what he will do."

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