Don't make Saddam mad, make him lonely

"If you indict [Deputy Prime Minister] Tariq Aziz, for instance ... it would make it much more difficult for Arab countries to deal with them," says Salem Shalabi, an Iraqi lawyer in London. "It delegitimizes [Hussein] and effectively prohibits his ability to maneuver internationally."

The initiative would also transform current No Fly Zones in northern and southern Iraq, which cover about two-thirds of the country, into No Drive Zones – denying access not only to the Iraqi Air Force but also to the Army and intelligence services.

Further, it would establish a third No Drive Zone, linking the northern and southern zones, in the Western Desert along the Syrian border.

A UN Security Council resolution would authorize the No Drive Zones – and the use of force, by Special Forces troops with air support, to protect them.

Weapons inspectors and human rights monitors would also be deployed in the zones to assist the local leadership in maintaining order. Mallat says their deployment is key to the plan's success. "They would monitor and prevent uncontrolled acts of revenge and ensure that international standards are the measure of any emerging forces," he says.

A leading Iraqi opposition leader confirmed to the Monitor his backing for Democratic Iraq, and said that he had already approached the Bush administration to win support for the deployment of human rights monitors in Iraq.

It is likely to be a tough sell, however. The administration has clearly stated its preference for regime change by force.

Juan Cole, professor of history at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, argues that the "more influential hawks" in the Bush administration are closely linked to Israel's Likud Party, "and they wish to remove Saddam because he is the only credible military rival to Israel in the region. I do not believe that the Democratic Iraq initiative will be acceptable in Washington, because it is premised on the good faith of the Bush administration's stated reason for concern," he says.

Nonetheless, the lack of international support for an attack on Iraq appears to have spurred President Bush to grant the UN a last chance to mediate a more peaceful alternative.

• Continue military buildup – and talk of democratic change in Iraq, not of deposing Saddam Hussein.

• Increase public exposure to democratic credentials of Iraqi opposition leaders.

• Relax UN sanctions affecting the Iraqi people. Tighten those affecting the Iraqi regime.

• Transform existing No Fly Zones in northern and southern Iraq into No Drive Zones, to deny access to Iraqi military and intelligence. Create a third No Drive Zone in the Western Desert.

• Enforce respect for No Drive Zones through deployment of Special Forces backed by air support. Deploy weapons inspectors and human rights monitors.

• Indict Saddam Hussein for war crimes.

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