Voters tilt to stable, familiar

As polls open Tuesday morning for the biggest primary day of the 2002 election, one voter message may be this: High-profile candidates who come across as edgy or iconoclastic may not do as well as expected.

The struggles of famous, yet polarizing, politicians such as Sen. Bob Smith (R) of New Hampshire – who briefly quit the GOP to launch an independent bid for president in 1999 – in part reflect local circumstance.

They might also be the result of the unusually subdued atmosphere for this campaign, with most candidates halting all advertising and limiting campaign activities for a period surrounding Sept. 11.

But perhaps they are, too, a sign of voters' desire for uncontroversial leaders at a time of national uncertainty.

Certainly, analysts agree, candidates who have made controversial statements about Sept. 11 have fared poorly: Former HUD Secretary Andrew Cuomo dropped out of the New York governor's race last week, in part because his campaign never recovered from his description of Gov. George Pataki as "holding the coat" of Mayor Rudolph Giuliani.

"Those who have been perceived as taking potshots or playing around with 9/11 in some way – or of potentially embarrassing their constituents – have had a difficult time," says Thomas Mann, a political analyst at Washington's Brookings Institution.

Last month, primary voters in Georgia ousted Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D), who had ignited controversy over her charge that President Bush had prior knowledge of the terrorist attacks. They also rejected Rep. Bob Barr (R), a former Clinton impeachment manager known for his flamethrowing style.

Sept. 10's round of primary contests represents the biggest political day of the 2002 election cycle prior to this November's vote itself. Voters in 12 states and the District of Columbia will choose nominees in a number of crucial contests, from the governorships of several big states to Senate and House seats that could ultimately determine which party controls Congress.

Today's elections will determine the political futures not only of Senator Smith but also of former Attorney General Janet Reno, another polarizing figure waging a somewhat quirky campaign for governor of Florida. In recent weeks, Ms. Reno has lost her once-commanding lead for the Democratic nomination and is now locked in a tight battle with Tampa attorney Bill McBride.

Both Reno and Smith have run without support of their state parties, amid doubts about their chances in November.

Both also, along with the now-exited Mr. Cuomo, have tried to cast themselves as outsiders.

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