PR war over Iraq escalates

Mr. Walt ticks off a list of reasons the US is in "much worse" standing with the world than in 1990-91 – starting with talk of a policy of preemptive military action. "Then Iraq had engaged in an unprovoked attack on an independent state, but now the situation is almost completely reversed," he says. "It's the US contemplating an attack" on a country that has violated various UN resolutions "but is still more or less behaving itself."

Attacking Iraq also risks diverting attention and resources from the war with Al Qaeda, which the world sees as a legitimate fight. With many nations convinced a policy of containing Iraq has worked pretty well, a US attack might raise suspicions of American motives.

Still, other observers believe the US can make a convincing case for taking on Hussein – provided it works through the UN Security Council. That view is backed up by some recent polling in Europe. It shows public opposition there to any US military action shifting to support, if it is backed by UN resolutions.

"In fact it would be relatively easy [for Washington] to make the case and line up the necessary political support, though maybe not military support, for a strike against the Iraqi regime," says Klaus Becher, a transatlantic expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. "But the key is to use the Security Council."

Iraq's history of violating UN resolutions sets the stage for Council action, he says.

"The argument hasn't hit home in Washington that if you want to use preemptive force, the only way to do it is through the Security Council," he continues. Besides the other convincing arguments that could be made, Mr. Becher adds, Council members would likely go along "because it wouldn't be the challenge to the international order that the US acting unilaterally would be."

Along those lines, foreign ministers of the 15-member European Union are advancing a plan for a Security Council resolution: It would allow for Iraq to be attacked if it didn't meet a deadline for allowing in international weapons inspectors. The plan is seen as an attempt by Europe to bridge differences with Washington.

In his comments this week, Mr. Blair showed support for Bush, arguing for tough action against Hussein. He said much of the recent debate would leave one "to think that we're dealing with some benign little democracy out in Iraq."

But Becher says the problem is that Washington has yet to give world leaders the detailed arguments they need to convince their own publics. "Without that they would be accused of being Washington's poodle," he says, "as Tony Blair has been."

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