Violence, a US mining giant, and Papua politics

Local newspapers have been filled with speculation that the Indonesian military, led by its Kopassus Special Forces, could have been behind the attack to send a message to Freeport that it needs to pay more for its protection, as well as provide a pretext for a crackdown on separatists. Late last year, top independence leader Theys Eluay was assassinated. Though no charges have been pressed, the Indonesian police say he was killed by a Kopassus unit.

But for now, intelligence officials close to the situation say they are focusing on a rogue Papuan group led by Titus Murib, a volatile former member of the OPM who was pushed out of the movement.

Mr. Murib, a shadowy figure from the western Dani tribe, which lives in the island's central mountains, kidnapped two Belgian filmmakers last July. He was also blamed for attacking and holding the town of Ilaga and its airfield for about a week last September. The Belgians were released after about a month.

"Murib operates on his own, and he's proven himself to be a violent guy, and showed that he really savored all of the attention when he took the hostages,'' says an investigator who's closely following developments. "We're just hoping that the military doesn't take any harsh or illogical moves now against the presidium."

Brigham Golden, a Columbia University graduate student who's writing a doctoral dissertation on Freeport's interaction with the independence movement, says Mr. Murib's involvement wouldn't necessarily rule out military involvement.

He and other analysts say the Indonesian military has frequently used militia groups as proxies in Papua and other provinces. "There's never been an OPM attack that involves automatic weapons – the use of them is a sign of likely military involvement," says Mr. Golden. "The military are the ones that have the most to gain from instability."

For instance, Freeport's mine was closed by rioting in 1996. Afterwards, the company built, at its own expense, a $37 million base for the Indonesian military in the Timika area.

The survivors of the attack are in stable condition at a hospital in Townsville, Australia. The Americans killed were Edwin Burcon, the head of Freeport's international school, and Rickey Spears, a teacher. The company said the mine will remain open. Freeport's Chairman James Moffet said in a statement: "Our primary concern is for the safety of our work force, their families and the well-being of the injured."

This is a difficult period for companies like Freeport, ExxonMobil, and Newmont Gold, which are caught between public anger at their long association with the Suharto dictatorship, and a military and police establishment often funded by extortion and other illegal business operations. The International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank, estimates that 70 percent of the military's budget comes from such ventures.

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