Fall races kick off – unpredictably

With less than two months to go until Election Day, the battle for control of Congress is entering the final leg of a campaign season that is shaping up as one of the tensest – and least predictable – in years.

Just two years after the bitterly disputed 2000 presidential contest, and one year after the worst terrorist attack on American soil, the upcoming elections will offer an important window into the mood of the electorate at a unique time in the nation's history.

The summer's steady drip of bad economic news, a weakening in President Bush's approval ratings, and indications that growing numbers of Americans think the country is on the wrong track have all lately given Democrats a sense of momentum. But so far, this has yet to show up as a discernable edge in enough individual races to tilt the overall playing field, which remains tightly competitive.

Analysts say that while the focus on domestic issues such as the economy and healthcare may give Democrats an advantage, congressional Republicans may also have protected themselves with votes for bills on corporate accountability and prescription-drug benefits. And foreign affairs could steal back into the campaign at any time, which could give the GOP an edge.

What makes all this particularly nerve-wracking for both parties is the fact that Congress has not been this closely divided in seven decades: Democrats need a net gain of just six seats to win back the House, while Republicans are just one seat away from control of the Senate.

As a result, even the slightest shift in voter sentiment could have an enormous impact – whether it's a souring mood causing some voters to turn on the president's party, or renewed patriotism, prompted by memories of the terrorist attacks, giving Mr. Bush and the GOP a boost.

"Any little thing – [or] any unanticipated big thing – could make all the difference here," says Norman Ornstein, a political analyst at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. "So we're going to have a tension-filled fall."

This year's battle is also being waged within a relatively small number of races. Despite the fact that this is a redistricting year – meaning congressional districts have all been redrawn to comply with new census data – only 40 House seats out of 435 are likely to be competitive, according to the Cook Political Report, a Washington newsletter.

In 1992, the last redistricting year, more than 120 seats were up for grabs. The Senate is somewhat more competitive, with at least 15 close races out of 34 seats up this year.

Most open is the field for governorships, with 36 seats up this year. Republicans have been bracing for losses in the states, since the GOP is defending 23 seats, but some Democratic incumbents have lately become vulnerable as well because of growing state budget woes.

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